skip navigation


Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.


NCJ Number: 135910 Find in a Library
Title: Risk Prediction and Probation: Papers From a Research and Planning Unit Workshop
Corporate Author: Great Britain Home Office
Research and Planning Unit
United Kingdom
Editor(s): G Mair
Date Published: 1989
Page Count: 126
Sponsoring Agency: Great Britain Home Office
London. SW1H 9AT, England
Publication Number: ISBN 0-86252-486-5
Sale Source: Great Britain Home Office
Research and Planning Unit
50 Queen Anne's Gate
London. SW1H 9AT,
United Kingdom
Type: Conference Material
Language: English
Country: United Kingdom
Annotation: These five papers were first presented at a 1988 workshop sponsored by the British Home Office Research and Planning Unit to describe and assess the status of the development and use of statistical prediction devices in probation.
Abstract: The introduction reviews the workshop papers and the key issues discussed at the workshop. It notes that individual probation services are at the forefront of developments in the use of prediction scales in England and Wales. Such scales are primarily used to ensure that probation does actually reduce custodial sentencing by selecting for various probation conditions persons who would previously have been sentenced to prison. The first workshop paper discusses some of the organizational and practical implications of using predictive scales. In another paper, David Bale from the Cambridgeshire Probation Service, describes the way in which his risk-of-custody scale was constructed and validated, thereby demonstrating the evolutionary nature of such a task. A third paper profiles the prediction scale used by the Hampshire Probation Service, a simplified version of the Cambridgeshire scale. Its primary use is to measure management effectiveness. Remaining papers consider whether or not probation officers' personal judgments are better or worse than the use of a prediction scale as well as the development of a sentencing prediction scale used by the Staffordshire Probation Service. References, tables, and figures for each paper
Main Term(s): Probation outcome prediction
Index Term(s): Alternatives to institutionalization; Corrections decisionmaking; Foreign probation or parole services; Probation
Note: Research and Planning Unit Paper 56
To cite this abstract, use the following link:

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.