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NCJ Number: 135925 Find in a Library
Title: Techniques for the Estimation of Illicit Drug-Use Prevalence: An Overview of Relevant Issues
Author(s): Y-I Hser; M D Anglin; T D Wickens; M L Brecht; J Homer
Date Published: Unknown
Page Count: 46
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
Washington, DC 20531
National Institute on Drug Abuse
Bethesda, MD 20892-9561
University of California, Los Angeles
Los Angeles, CA 90024
US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 87-IJ-CX-0042; K01DA00139
Sale Source: University of California, Los Angeles
Drug Abuse Research Group
Neuropsychiatric Institute
Los Angeles, CA 90024
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Test/Measurement
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: Issues related to drug prevalence estimation techniques include adequate definitions of drug user populations, availability and suitability of existing indicator data, and utility and applicability of selected estimation techniques.
Abstract: Although numerous difficulties are associated with prevalence estimation, estimates are necessary to make practical decisions for resource allocation and program planning. Development in at least three areas is needed to improve drug prevalence estimation: (1) improving the understanding of drug use phenomena; (2) consistent, comprehensive, and accurate data collection systems; and (3) continued development and improved use of appropriate estimation techniques. An estimate derived by any particular method is the result of interplay between theory, methodology, and empirical data. Choice of the estimation model depends on the phenomenon under study and on available data. By applying multiple approaches, each capitalizing on some salient aspect of the prevalence problem, confidence in the results is increased or at least inconsistencies are identified. In addition, alternative models using different approaches and data sources are necessary to validate each other when estimates overlap. The resulting multiple-mode approach is considered to be appropriate in prevalence estimation for making policy decisions on enforcement, treatment, and prevention. The authors discuss sampling, self-report validity, event-based and person-based data systems, static estimation models, synthetic estimation techniques, closed and open population models, dynamic models, and system dynamics modeling. 71 references and 2 tables
Main Term(s): Drug use
Index Term(s): Estimating methods; Modeling techniques
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