skip navigation

PUBLICATIONS

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.

 

NCJ Number: 148103 Find in a Library
Title: Note on Portraying the Accuracy of Violence Predictions
Journal: Law and Human Behavior  Volume:17  Issue:6  Dated:(December 1993)  Pages:695-700
Author(s): S D Hart; C D Webster; R J Menzies
Date Published: 1993
Page Count: 6
Type: Survey
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: The accuracy of dichotomous violence predictions is discussed.
Abstract: Two major reviews of the accuracy of dichotomous (yes/no) violence predictions which reported rates of false positive errors that were calculated using conceptually and mathematically dissimilar methods are examined. Potential problems that result from analyzing data in the form of 2 X 2 contingency tables are outlined and recommendations for future research on the prediction of violence are made in the text and also are presented in table form. These recommendations include the advice that investigators who continue to report the results of studies based on dichotomous predictors should stipulate clearly what they mean by "false positive errors" and relate the number of errors to base rates. To help prevent future misinterpretations and to facilitate inspection and re- analysis by readers, journal editors should require authors to report in their manuscript the raw data for any 2 X 2 analyses. When the focus of analyses is predictive accuracy, positive predictive power, negative predictive power, and overall chance-corrected predictive accuracy statistics should be reported. References
Main Term(s): Criminology
Index Term(s): Statistics; Violence; Violence causes; Violence prediction
Note: *This document is currently unavailable from NCJRS.
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=148103

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.