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NCJ Number: 149263 Find in a Library
Title: Prison Population Growth and Crime Reduction
Journal: Journal of Quantitative Criminology  Volume:10  Issue:2  Dated:(June 1994)  Pages:109-140
Author(s): T B Marvell; C E Moody Jr
Date Published: 1994
Page Count: 32
Grant Number: 88-IJ-CX-0045
Dataset: DATASET 1
Type: Survey
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This paper outlines the problems with using the lambda, the individual crime rate of inmates or arrestees, for estimating the impact of State prison populations on crime and reanalyzes and adjusts the widely divergent lambdas from past research to estimate the impact of incapacitation.
Abstract: The result is an uncertain estimate of 16 to 25 index crimes averted per year for each additional prisoner. Regression analysis can provide a better estimate of the impact of prison population growth. Applying the Granger test to pooled State data over 19 years, the analysis reveals that prison population growth leads to lower crime rates but that crime rate changes have little or no short- term impact on prison population growth. A further analysis, in which crime rates were regressed on prison population, includes that, on average, at least 17 index crimes are averted for each additional prisoner. This impact is limited mainly to property crime. Footnotes, tables, and 78 references (Author abstract modified)
Main Term(s): Criminology
Index Term(s): Corrections effectiveness; Corrections research; Effects of imprisonment; Incapacitation theory
Note: NIJ Reprint
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http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=149263

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