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NCJ Number: 149602 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Modeling the Demand for Cocaine
Author(s): S S Everingham; C P Rydell
Date Published: 1994
Page Count: 77
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
NCJRS Photocopy Services
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
Rand Corporation
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
Publication Number: ISBN 0-8330-1553-2
Sale Source: Rand Corporation
1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States of America

National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America

NCJRS Photocopy Services
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This report documents the development of a model for assessing the demand for cocaine that was fit to 20 years of data on the current cocaine epidemic in the United States; demand is determined by a two-state Markovian model of user flows based on cocaine use data from the National Household Survey of Drug Abuse and other sources.
Abstract: The Markovian approach to modeling prevalence can be distinguished from purely statistical techniques such as multiple capture, Poisson estimation, and synthetic estimation and from such elaborate behavioral models as the system dynamics model. The Markovian model incorporates one or more States and transition parameters that determine flows between those States. It separates cocaine users into two categories, light users and heavy users, and demonstrates that the fraction of heavy cocaine users has varied greatly over time. The authors show that the effect of government programs designed to reduce heavy cocaine use will only be realized many years later and that the effectiveness of local law enforcement programs will also be delayed. The fact that various control programs focus on different aspects of cocaine use means that some strategies may be most appropriate for specific stages of the epidemic. The increased prevalence of heavy versus light cocaine users and its effect on total cocaine consumption is discussed. 21 references, 8 tables, and 42 figures
Main Term(s): Drug regulation
Index Term(s): Cocaine; Corrections; Drug abuse; Drug law enforcement; Drug Policy; Modeling techniques; Statistical analysis; Statistics
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=149602

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