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NCJ Number: 154647 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Constructing Optimal Drug-Testing Plans Using a Bayesian Acceptance Sampling Model
Journal: Mathematical Computer Modelling  Volume:17  Issue:2  Dated:(1993)  Pages:77-88
Author(s): J R Baker; P K Lattimore; L A Matheson
Date Published: 1993
Page Count: 12
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
Washington, DC 20531
US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This study proposes an analytic model based on individual decision theory and Bayesian acceptance sampling to develop cost- minimizing drug-testing strategies.
Abstract: A theoretical model of individual drug use is developed that implies a prior probability distribution over the number of drug users in a population. This prior distribution is then used to develop an optimal sampling strategy by minimizing an expected total cost function. The cost function is based on the cost of inspection (testing), the cost of treating or sanctioning drug users identified by the testing, the cost associated with additional testing and treatment associated with rejecting a lot based on the sample, and the cost incurred for undetected drug users that remain in an accepted lot. The impact of the drug- testing program on individuals in the program was modeled by using an expected utility function. Program effects impacted on the prior distribution through these utility functions. The single-period results showed the impact of relative costs on the optimal testing strategy. Findings show that under some circumstances, the best drug-testing strategy is not to test. Under other circumstances, screening the entire population was optimal. Under other cost scenarios, however, lower expected total costs could be achieved by using an acceptance sampling approach. An examination of the multi-period model suggests that consideration of the prior distribution and of changes in the prior distribution achieved by the drug-testing program could lead to cost savings. Alternative acceptance sampling plans could prove optimal over multiple periods. Directions for future research are suggested. 3 tables, 1 figure, and 24 references
Main Term(s): Drug testing
Index Term(s): Criminology; Employee drug testing; Models
Note: NIJ Reprint Series
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