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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 157350 Find in a Library
Title: System Dynamics Model for Estimating Heroin Imports Into the United States
Journal: System Dynamics Review  Volume:3  Issue:1  Dated:(Winter 1987)  Pages:8-27
Author(s): L K Gardiner; R C Shrechengost
Date Published: 1987
Page Count: 20
Type: Survey
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This article describes a system dynamics model, developed in 1984, that uses other available information to estimate the amount of heroin entering the United States at any given time.
Abstract: The model allows government authorities to track, and react to, fluctuations in the heroin market, and provides insight into how fundamental factors affecting the behavior of the heroin system are interrelated. The model provides a general structure that may be applicable to trafficking patterns in other illicit drugs. This article discusses the model's ability to predict the size of the heroin addict population in the U.S. as one means of demonstrating the model's validity. Three areas where data are available to compare to model-generated numbers include heroin purity, heroin price, and heroin-related deaths. 1 table, 12 figures, 2 notes, 6 references, and 1 appendix
Main Term(s): Drug dependence
Index Term(s): Drug law offenses; Heroin; Modeling techniques
Note: DCC
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