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NCJ Number: 158229 Find in a Library
Title: Unemployment and the Dynamics of Offender Populations
Journal: Journal of Quantitative Criminology  Volume:11  Issue:3  Dated:(September 1995)  Pages:231-245
Author(s): M F Collins; D Weatherburn
Date Published: 1995
Page Count: 15
Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This paper models the increase in the participation rate of criminal behavior as either the initiation rate or the career length of criminals charged in response to unemployment.
Abstract: The analysis indicates that plausible assumptions about the way in which unemployment affects participation in property crimes lead one to expect highly lagged effects. These assumptions may explain why studies of the relationship between unemployment and crime produce such inconsistent results. A simple Poisson model of offender populations is developed to explore the effects on offender populations, and therefore aggregate crime rates, of changes in the propensity to become involved in crime and changes in the propensity to persist in crime. Consequences of assuming that unemployment increases the rate at which individuals become involved in offending are explored, and implications of the analysis for future research on the relationship between unemployment and crime are discussed. The authors indicate that, even with large instantaneous increases in unemployment, the model shows a very slow increase in the criminal participation rate. 26 references and 3 figures
Main Term(s): Corrections
Index Term(s): Crime Causes; Crime patterns; Crime Rate; Crime Statistics; Criminal career patterns; Economic analysis of crime; Economic influences; Economic models; Employment-crime relationships; Mathematical modeling; Property crimes; Unemployment
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