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NCJ Number: 166169 Find in a Library
Title: Interpreting Trends in Recorded Crime in New Zealand
Author(s): S Triggs
Date Published: 1997
Page Count: 74
Sponsoring Agency: New Zealand Dept of Justice
Wellington, New Zealand
Publication Number: ISBN 0-478-20122-2
Sale Source: New Zealand Dept of Justice
Private Box 180
New Zealand
Type: Statistics
Language: English
Country: New Zealand
Annotation: This report examines the factors that influence fluctuations in aggregate levels of recorded crime in New Zealand, forecasts crime rates, and discusses the potential impact on crime rates of factors that could not be statistically evaluated.
Abstract: This research is the first stage of a Ministry of Justice project to develop a statistical model of the criminal justice system. Multiple regression techniques were used to determine which social, economic, demographic and justice factors were statistically associated with changes in the annual growth rate of recorded crime rates over the 1962-95 time period. The report also forecasts crime rates using the results of the regression models, as well as time-series and judgment techniques, and discusses the potential impact on crime rates of factors that could not be statistically evaluated. Sections that discuss factors associated with the growth of recorded crime examine precedents, results and interpretation of economic, social, demographic, and criminal factors, among others. The chapter on forecasting crime rates discusses dishonesty offenses, property damage, violent offenses and other offenses against a person, domestic violence and sexual offenses, and drug offenses. References, appendixes, tables, figures
Main Term(s): Statistics
Index Term(s): Corrections; Crime analysis; Crime prediction; Crime Rate; Crime rate studies; Foreign corrections statistics; Modeling techniques; New Zealand; Statistical analysis; Victims of Crime
Note: US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, International Crime Statistics Program
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