skip navigation

PUBLICATIONS

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.

 

NCJ Number: 167961 Find in a Library
Title: Preventive Detention and the Judicial Prediction of Dangerousness for Juveniles: A Natural Experiment
Journal: Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology  Volume:86  Issue:2  Dated:(Winter 1996)  Pages:415-448
Author(s): J Fagan; M Guggenheim
Date Published: 1996
Page Count: 34
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This article reports on research into the predictive validity of judicial determination of dangerousness inherent in preventive detention.
Abstract: The degree to which preventive detention furthers its community safety purpose depends entirely upon the capacity to predict who will commit a crime over a specified period of time. Jurisdictions typically rely on three factors for determining pretrial dangerousness: prior criminal record, seriousness of the current offense and judicial discretion. However, there is little empirical evidence that these charge-related bases for detention are good indicators of criminality during the pretrial period. As applied, preventive detention reflects some combination of actuarial and clinical predictions involving judicial experience and normative expectations. While predictions of a broad range of pretrial crimes are efficient, the prediction of dangerousness is unreliable. When narrowed to violent crimes, the decision standard that guides preventive detention statutes in many state predictions is inefficient and the performance is unacceptable. In light of the great cost to defendants in terms of case outcomes and sanctions, and the marginal gains to society in crimes averted, preventive detention appears to be unjustified. Notes, tables
Main Term(s): Courts
Index Term(s): Bail reform; Crime prevention measures; Discretionary decisions; Federal Bail Reform Act; Judicial attitudes; Juvenile delinquency prediction; Juveniles; Pretrial procedures; Preventive detention; Sentencing factors
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=167961

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.