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NCJRS Abstract
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NCJ Number: 168479
Title: Age-Structure Trends and Prison Populations
Journal: Journal of Criminal Justice Volume:25 Issue:2 Dated:1997 Pages:115-124
Author(s): T B Marvell; C E Moody
Date Published: 1997
Page Count: 10
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This study analyzed the influence of age structure in the general population on the number of inmates in State prisons and the number of court commitments to prisons.
Abstract: Several studies had incorrectly predicted that the aging of the "baby boom" cohort would cause prison populations to decline in the 1990's; this research attempted to determine the reason for this failure. Using a multiple time series design with State data over approximately 20 years, the analysis regressed prison variables on the proportion of the population in high- imprisonment-rate age groups (18-24, 25-34, and 35-44). A major finding is that age structure is, in fact, related to court commitments and prison population size. This is true for both males and females when studied separately. The failure of predictions that prison commitments and population would decline is caused by other factors that have stronger impacts on prison population size than age-structure trends in the general population. These trends will place downward pressures on the size of future prison populations, but these trends cannot be used to forecast prison populations, given the many factors that fuel an increase in the number of inmates. 5 tables, 1 figure, 3 notes, and 29 references
Main Term(s): Corrections policies
Index Term(s): Age group comparisons; Prison population prediction
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