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NCJ Number: 168571 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Coming Wave of Violence in California (From Nature of Homicide: Trends and Changes - Proceedings of the 1996 Meeting of the Homicide Research Working Group, Santa Monica, California, P 40-51, 1996, Pamela K Lattimore and Cynthia A Nahabedian, eds. - See NCJ-166149)
Author(s): A F Abrahamse
Corporate Author: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
US Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
United States of America

US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
United States of America
Date Published: 1996
Page Count: 12
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
Washington, DC 20531
National Institute of Justice/NCJRS
Rockville, MD 20849
NCJRS Photocopy Services
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/NCJRS
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America

NCJRS Photocopy Services
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
United States of America
Type: Survey
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This paper projects homicide arrest rates in California through the year 2021 using a file that describes almost every homicide arrest in California between 1981 and 1994 and population projections created by the State of California.
Abstract: Future homicide arrest rates are estimated for every birth cohort represented in California's population between 1995 and 2021. Projected homicide arrest rates are based on pessimistic, nominal, and optimistic assumptions. Under the pessimistic assumption, homicide arrest rates will nearly double by 2021; under the nominal assumption, homicide arrest rates will be about 28 percent higher in 2021 than in 1994; under the optimistic assumption, homicide arrest rates in 2021 will be about 14 percent below 1994 levels. The author indicates there are about 80 percent more homicide victims than homicide arrests, since California saw about 1.8 homicide victims for every homicide arrest between 1981 and 1994. 11 figures
Main Term(s): Criminology
Index Term(s): Arrest statistics; California; Crime prediction; Estimated crime incidence; Future trends; Homicide trends; Homicide victims; Victims of violent crime; Violent crime statistics
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