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NCJ Number: 182030 Find in a Library
Title: Crimes and the Need for Sanction Capacity in the Netherlands: Trends and Backgrounds
Journal: European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research  Volume:8  Issue:1  Dated:March 2000  Pages:91-106
Author(s): Frank van Tulder
Date Published: March 2000
Page Count: 16
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: Netherlands
Annotation: This article presents recent trends in, and forecasts of, the need for sanction capacity in the Netherlands.
Abstract: Various types of crime currently show various trends. The need for prison capacity is still growing but at a smaller rate than before. The article describes the Jukebox-1 model, which was used for a part of the forecasts. It relates the trends in the capacity needed for prisons and task-sanctions for adults to trends in crime and law enforcement activities. The model pays particular attention to background factors of demographic and socioeconomic type and to the related developments in the number of crimes. The number of violent crimes is expected to rise, whereas the number of petty thefts is expected to continue to decline. The number of aggravated thefts, which has decreased over the last years under the influence of a declining number of unemployed, is expected to rise in the years to come. The model can be used to estimate (simulate) the crime-reducing effects of various policy options: more input to the police or increasingly severe sanctions with corresponding additional input into the courts and prisons. The article describes the results of some policy simulations with the model. Tables, notes, figures, references
Main Term(s): Criminology
Index Term(s): Crime patterns; Crime prevention measures; Models; Netherlands; Policy; Prison construction; Punishment; Research uses in policymaking; Theft offenses
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