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NCJ Number: 185084 Find in a Library
Title: Search for Causes in an Era of Crime Declines: Some Lessons From the Study of New York City Homicide
Journal: Crime & Delinquency  Volume:46  Issue:4  Dated:October 2000  Pages:446-456
Author(s): Franklin E. Zimring; Jeffery Fagan
Date Published: October 2000
Page Count: 11
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This article examines the effects of particular policies on crime rates.
Abstract: The article addresses the problem of testing the effects of particular policies on crime rates in an era of general down trends. One illustration of the problem is the substantial decline in New York City non-gun-homicide rates for 8 years prior to any significant change in policing; the decline could not plausibly have been caused by the later events. The article contrasts three different "controls" for time trend effects: naive cross-sectional controls, detailed models of crime causation and qualitative checks that examine whether the details of crime patterns are changing in ways consistent with theories of policy events as change agents. The country today is experiencing a close-to-euphoric competition to claim credit for major crime reductions for a variety of countermeasures, from policing to imprisonment levels to the deterrent effects of new laws. The article questions whether criminal justice policies should be assumed to affect general crime rates in broad and undifferentiated ways. Figures, references
Main Term(s): Statistics
Index Term(s): Crime prevention measures; Crime Rate; Crime rate studies; Crime Statistics; Deterrence effectiveness; Incarceration; Laws and Statutes; New York; Urban area studies
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