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NCJ Number: 186955 Find in a Library
Title: Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism
Journal: Journal of Quantitative Criminology  Volume:16  Issue:4  Dated:December 2000  Pages:385-414
Author(s): Gabriel Escarela; Brian Francis; Keith Soothill
Date Published: December 2000
Page Count: 30
Type: Measurement/Evaluation Device
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This study develops a statistical procedure to analyze recidivism in samples that are subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes of reconviction.
Abstract: The statistical procedure allows for a more accurate study of individuals' transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following a specific type of conviction. The study shows use of a nonparametric approach for investigating failure in the presence of other acting causes, obtains initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different types of offenses, and demonstrates that the method can be used both to display the data and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survival times. The study presents an exponential mixture model for competing risks in such a way that it allows adjustment for concomitant variables and assessment of their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction for predetermined types of offenses and desistance, and of the hazards of reconviction. It also suggests a method for assessing calibration of predicted survival probabilities. The study finds a high probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previous sexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard of reconviction for young chronic offenders. Figures, tables, references
Main Term(s): Crime prevention measures
Index Term(s): Juvenile Recidivism; Juvenile recidivists; Models; Program evaluation; Recidivism; Recidivism prediction; Sex offenders; Sex offenses; Statistics
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