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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 192463 Find in a Library
Title: Actuarial Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk: A Cross-Validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden
Journal: Law and Human Behavior  Volume:25  Issue:6  Dated:December 2001  Pages:629-645
Author(s): Gabrielle Sjostedt; Niklas Langstrom
Date Published: December 2001
Page Count: 17
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This study cross-validated two actuarial risk-assessment tools -- the RRASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment of Sexual Offense Recidivism) and the Static-99 -- in a retrospective follow-up (mean follow-up time of 3.69 years) of all sex offenders released from Swedish prisons during 1993-97 who were males older than 18 years (n=1,400).
Abstract: File-based data were collected by a researcher who was "blind" to the outcome (registered criminal recidivism) and to individual risk factors. Both the RRASOR and the Static-99 showed similar and moderate predictive accuracy for sexual reconvictions; whereas, the Static-99 exhibited a significantly higher accuracy for the prediction of any violent recidivism compared to the RRASOR. Although the Static-99 proved moderately robust as an actuarial measure of recidivism risk among sex offenders in Sweden, both procedures may require further evaluation with sex offender subpopulations that differ ethnically or with respect to offense characteristics. The study concluded that the RRASOR or the Static-99 cannot be used as stand-alone devices for "rule-out" decisions. For certain types of "rule-in" decisions, however, the potential consequences of incorrect risk assessment were less catastrophic. These include intake risk screening for decisions on where to place inmates and which inmates to target for further evaluation and treatment. For these contexts, the findings indicate the Static-99 in particular could be helpful, since it had a higher sensitivity in correctly identifying actual recidivists compared to the RRASOR. 4 tables and 34 references
Main Term(s): Criminology
Index Term(s): Foreign criminal justice research; Recidivism; Recidivism prediction; Sex offenders; Sweden
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