NCJ Number: 199193
Title: Trends in Assault: On the Relationship Between the Assault Rate and Selected Social Indicators in Post-War Finland
Journal: Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention Volume:3 Issue:1 Dated:2002 Pages:22-49
Author(s): Reino Siren
Date Published: 2002
Page Count: 28
Publisher: http://www.tandf.no/crime
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: Finland
Annotation: This study examined the extent to which various social indicators
can statistically explain changes in the number of assaults
recorded in Finland over the period 1950-2000.
Abstract: From 1950 to about the mid-1960's, the annual volume of assaults
in Finland fluctuated very little. The crime rate was surprisingly stable for approximately 15 years; however, toward the end of the 1960's, the number of assaults began to increase. In 1969, the year of alcohol reform in Finland, the increase was exceptionally sharp. This upward trend has continued, albeit with some fluctuations. The most notable departures from the increase
in assaults occurred during the late 1970's and the years
1991-93, when the number of assaults decreased. In the mid-1990's there was another surge, with more than a 10-percent annual
increase in assaults recorded by the police. The latest crime
data indicate the assault rate has continued on a path of
moderate growth. In comparing police assault statistics with
those of victim surveys, it is apparent that the increase in
assaults indicated in police statistics is due in part to the
increased rate of police detection of violence; however, the
urbanization of Finnish society is perhaps the key factor in
assault increases. Urbanization has increased the opportunities
for various kinds of violent encounters. Of the factors examined
through the least-median-of-squares regression model, alcohol
consumption, private consumers' expenditure, and the clearance
rate of assault had the best explanatory power. The author
advises, however, that although the relationship of these indicators to annual changes in the assault rate is statistically significant, they should not be assumed to be reliable predictors of future developments in the assault rate. 10 figures, 3 tables, and 46 references
Main Term(s): Offense statistics
Index Term(s): Aggravated assault; Alcohol-crime relationship; Assault and battery; Foreign criminal justice research; Trend analysis; Urbanization
To cite this abstract, use the following link: http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=199193
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