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NCJ Number: 200553 Find in a Library
Title: Multivariate Analysis of Sex Offender Recidivism
Journal: International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology  Volume:47  Issue:3  Dated:June 2003  Pages:309-323
Author(s): Mario J. Scalora; Calvin Garbin
Date Published: June 2003
Page Count: 15
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This article examines both static and dynamic variables as possible predictors of sex offender recidivism.
Abstract: Previous research has focused on static measures as predictors of sex offender recidivism. Some of the main static variables attributed to recidivism among sex offenders are criminal history, employment status, age at first offense, severity of offense, marital status, and educational attainment among others. The authors caution that although the focus on static variables as predictors of recidivism is not misguided, there are also important dynamic variables that may contribute to recidivism among sex offenders. As such, the authors examined the records of 194 convicted child molesters in order to discern the impact of treatment involvement on subsequent recidivism. Other variables examined included the static variables of demographic information, criminal history, and offense. By examining both static and dynamic factors, the authors argue that sex offender recidivism can be better predicted. The study group was divided between those who received intensive cognitive-behavioral treatment (n = 76) and those who received no treatment (n = 118). Recidivism was measured using subsequent arrest data. Results of multivariate statistical analyses revealed that recidivism was significantly related to offender demographics, offense characteristics, criminal history, and quality of treatment involvement. Offenders who successfully completed treatment were shown to be less likely to recidivate. Those who were more likely to recidivate tended to be younger, unmarried, less violent, and had previous arrests for property offenses. Although this research supports the findings of previous research regarding treatment effectiveness and sex offender recidivism, more research is needed to uncover the impact of treatment-related conditions such as comorbid mental health and substance abuse issues. Tables, references
Main Term(s): Recidivism prediction; Sex offender treatment
Index Term(s): Sex offenders; Treatment effectiveness
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