skip navigation


Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.


NCJ Number: 227734 Find in a Library
Title: Individual Prediction and Crime Trends
Journal: European Journal of Criminology  Volume:6  Issue:4  Dated:July 2009  Pages:313-335
Author(s): Henrik Tham; Hanns von Hofer
Date Published: July 2009
Page Count: 23
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United Kingdom
Annotation: This study examined prediction and early intervention as solutions to crime in society.
Abstract: The paper first presents an exemplification of the problems associated with, and the limited explanatory power of individual-level prediction for the prediction of crime at the aggregate level. Following that, the explanatory powers of individual-level variables at the macro level are tested. This involves a sociological analysis of psychological data, examining measures of intra-family conflict over time. Results indicate that the predictive power of individual childhood or teenage properties is too weak to explain total crime or specific types of crime. Changes in aggregate measures of conditions during upbringing are not easily compatible with changes in trends in crime; and other variables relating to changes in the opportunity structure and changes in the family upbringing can account for the development of crime trends. As an example, the trend in theft and violent crime in Sweden since World War II was shown to mirror the trends followed by the opportunity structure for goods liable to theft, in this case cars, and by levels of total alcohol consumption. Assumptions regarding changes in youth's level of motivation to commit crime, or their capacity for self-control, do not seem to be required to explain the increase in crime witnessed during this period. The data was collected from the Swedish level-of-living surveys. Tables, figures, appendix, and references
Main Term(s): Crime prediction; Sweden
Index Term(s): Alcohol-crime relationship; Crime analysis; Crime Causes; Crime detection; Crime in foreign countries; Crime patterns; Crimes of opportunity; Foreign crime prevention; Foreign criminal justice research; Psychological research; Social psychology; Socioculture; Socioeconomic causes of delinquency
To cite this abstract, use the following link:

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.