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NCJ Number: 228553 Find in a Library
Title: Do U.S. City Crime Rates Follow a National Trend?: The Influence of Nationwide Conditions on Local Crime Patterns
Journal: Journal of Quantitative Criminology  Volume:25  Issue:3  Dated:September 2009  Pages:307-324
Author(s): David McDowall; Colin Loftin
Date Published: September 2009
Page Count: 18
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This study examined the degree to which urban crime rates conformed to a single underlying pattern.
Abstract: The results of each analysis are consistent with a clear single pattern that operates across the Nation's major urban areas. This supports the idea that a meaningful national trend exists, and it suggests the desirability of continuing efforts to explain it. This paper uses panel data from large U.S. cities to examine the degree to which urban crime rates conform to a single underlying pattern. The next section discusses the possible nature of the relationship between local and national crime trends, and also reviews the small theoretical and empirical literatures that have addressed the topic. The following sections present three analyses that attempt to measure the association between national and local rates. Each analysis finds that the correspondence between the rates is strong, perhaps even to a surprising degree. The final two sections consider the implication of these results, including possible directions for future research. Tables and references
Main Term(s): Crime patterns; Crime Rate
Index Term(s): Future trends; National crime statistics; Study release; Urban criminality
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