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NCJ Number: 228562 Find in a Library
Title: Predicting Trajectories of Offending Over the Life Course: Findings From a Dutch Conviction Cohort
Journal: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency  Volume:46  Issue:4  Dated:November 2009  Pages:468-494
Author(s): Bianca E. Bersani; Paul Nieuwbeerta; John H. Laub
Date Published: November 2009
Page Count: 27
Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This study examined offending trajectories by analyzing long-term patterns of offending for a large sample of convicted offenders in the Netherlands.
Abstract: The findings indicate that although magnitude differences were readily apparent, criminal offending trajectories derived from the Dutch Criminal Career and Life-Course Study (CCLS) followed a general path that declined over time for all convicted offenders. In addition, despite the use of data covering a large portion of the life course, containing a large sample of serous offenders, and the application of an advanced statistical technique, the results were consistent with previous findings regarding the difficulty of predicting high-rate offenders prospectively. Distinguishing trajectories of criminal offending over the life course has received considerable attention over the past two decades. One question that has emerged from these studies was whether it was possible to distinguish or predict varying criminal offending trajectories, especially the chronic high-rate offender groups, using risk factors identified early in the life course. This study used longitudinal data on conviction histories from the CCLS to examine whether adolescent risk factors predicted offending trajectories across the life span. The study sample consisted of 4,615 individuals convicted in the Netherlands in 1977 beginning at 12 years of age and continuing into late adulthood. Two different analytical approaches were employed, examining whether offending trajectories could be prospectively differentiated by risk factors identified in adolescents and examining the ability to predict the probability of an individual's membership in a particular trajectory group. Figures, tables, notes, and references
Main Term(s): Crime prediction
Index Term(s): Crime patterns; Longitudinal studies; Netherlands
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