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NCJ Number: 31047 Find in a Library
Title: USE OF A MODIFIED DELPHI TO FORECAST FUTURE CRIMINALISTICS GOALS AND REQUIREMENTS
Journal: JOURNAL OF POLICE SCIENCE AND ADMINISTRATION  Volume:3  Issue:4  Dated:(DECEMBER 1975)  Pages:417-424
Author(s): M E O'NEILL; T J MERTENS
Corporate Author: Northwestern University
School of Law
Managing Editor
United States of America
Date Published: 1975
Page Count: 8
Sponsoring Agency: Northwestern University
Chicago, IL 60611
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: A SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS ACHIEVED DURING A TWO-DAY WORKSHOP ON CRIMINALISTICS IN WHICH CRIMINALISTICS EXPERTS UTILIZED A FORECASTING TECHNIQUE KNOWN AS DELPHI TO ESTIMATE FUTURE CRIMINALISTICS GOALS AND REQUIREMENTS.
Abstract: THE WORKSHOP WAS HELD IN CHICAGO ON OCTOBER 10 AND 11, 1974, AS PART OF A STUDY BEING CONDUCTED ON CRIMINALISTICS SERVICES IN THE STATE OF ILLINOIS. A PANEL OF EXPERTS WAS SELECTED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE FORECASTING EXERCISE. THE DELPHI METHOD USED IN THIS WORKSHOP WAS ORIGINALLY DEVELOPED BY THE RAND CORPORATION. THIS METHOD ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME THE UNDESIRABLE CHARACTERISTICS OF TRADITIONAL APPROACHES TO THE GATHERING OF GROUP OPINION IN ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION, SUCH AS THE HEAVY INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS. IN THE DELPHI METHOD, INDIVIDUAL PANEL MEMBERS ARE ASKED TO STATE OPINIONS OR MAKE ESTIMATES BASED ON AVAILABLE INFORMATION. THESE OPINIONS AND ESTIMATES ARE THEN USED AS NEW INPUT, AND PARTICIPANTS USE THIS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION TO MAKE ANOTHER ROUND OF ESTIMATIONS, WORKING INDIVIDUALLY AND NEVER IN OPEN CONFRONTATION. WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS IN THIS STUDY, USING THE DELPHI METHOD, PREDICTED THE BOUNDARIES OF THE CRIMINALISTICS PROCESS IN THE FUTURE. THEY DETERMINED THAT THE PROCESS WOULD BE EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS SERVICES FOR CRIMINAL, CIVIL, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS. GOALS OF THIS BROADER PROCESS, CALLED THE PHYSICAL EVIDENCE UTILIZATION PROCESS, WERE THEN DETERMINED. FINALLY, FUTURE REQUIREMENTS FOR ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, SERVICE DEMANDS, MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS, SUPPORT SYSTEMS, AND DELIVERY OF SERVICE WERE INVESTIGATED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)
Index Term(s): Criminalistics; Evidence identification; Future trends; Illinois; Long range planning; Objectives; Planning; Workshops and seminars
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=31047

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