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NCJ Number: 31337 Find in a Library
Title: ANALYSIS OF ARREST RATES FOR TRENDS IN CRIMINALITY
Journal: SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES  Volume:9  Dated:(1975)  Pages:221-227
Author(s): A BLUMSTEIN; D S NAGIN
Corporate Author: Pergamon Press Limited
United Kingdom
Date Published: 1975
Page Count: 7
Sponsoring Agency: Pergamon Press Limited
Oxford, OX3 0BW, England
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United Kingdom
Annotation: EXPLORATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE INCREASE IN THE PROPORTION OF YOUNG ADULTS IN THE POPULATION WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE 1960'S IS A PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CRIME DURING THAT SAME PERIOD.
Abstract: ARREST RATES ARE ANALYZED BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP OVER TIME. A MODEL WHICH ATTEMPTS TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN THE FUNCTIONS OF CRIMINALITY AND POLICE ACTIVITY IN ARREST ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPED. THE MODEL IS ESTIMATED USING DATA ON AGE, RACE, AND SEX-SPECIFIC ARREST RATES FOR PITTSBURGH RESIDENTS OVER THE PERIOD 1967-1972. THE RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CRIMINALITY FOR MEN IN THE PITTSBURGH POPULATION WHILE THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CRIMINALITY FOR WOMEN, POSSIBLY REFLECTING AN INCREASED WILLINGNESS OF THE POLICE TO ARREST WOMEN. A RECOMMENDATION IS MADE TO USE THE MODEL TO ANALYZE ARREST RATES FROM OTHER CITIES OR REGIONS TO FURTHER TEST THE HYPOTHESIS.
Index Term(s): Arrest statistics; Crime patterns; Crime Rate; Demography; Mathematical modeling; Pennsylvania; Young adult offenders
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