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NCJ Number: 42273 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: PREDICTING ADULT CRIMINAL CAREERS FROM JUVENILE CAREERS
Author(s): L SHANNON
Corporate Author: University of Iowa
Iowa Urban Community Research Ctr
United States of America
Date Published: 1976
Page Count: 80
Sponsoring Agency: Max C Fleischmann Foundation

National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA 52242
US Dept of Justice

US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 76-JN-99-0008; 76-JN-99-1005
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: THIS STUDY INVESTIGATED WHETHER ADULT CAREERS CAN BE PREDICTED FROM URBAN JUVENILE CAREERS IF THE FULLEST POSSIBLE DATA ON THE JUVENILE, WHERE THE DELINQUENCY TAKES PLACE, AND SOCIETAL REACTION IS INCLUDED.
Abstract: FINDINGS WERE BASED UPON RECORDED CONTACTS WITH THE THE POLICE BY TWO COHORTS, ONE BORN IN 1942 AND THE OTHER IN 1949. THE REASONS FOR THESE CONTACTS, THEIR SERIOUSNESS IN THE EYES OF THE LAW, PLACE OF RESIDENCE, AND OTHER DATA WERE UTILIZED IN PREDICTING WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO INITIALLY ENGAGE IN DELINQENT BEHAVIOR, WHO WILL CEASE DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR, AND WHO WILL EXHIBIT ADULT CRIMINAL ACTIVITY. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF MALES AND FEMALES, MEXICAN-AMERICAN, NEGRO, AND ANGLO WITH POLICE CONTACTS (ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SKEWED TOWARD THE INNER CITY) WAS NOT MARKEDLY DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF THE TOTAL COHORT. WHILE SOMEWHAT DISPROPORTIONATE NUMBERS OF NEGROES AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, MEXICAN-AMERICANS HAD POLICE CONTACTS AT EACH AGE PERIOD ( 6-17; 18-21; OVER 21) IN THEIR CAREERS, NEITHER DELINQUENCY NOR ADULT CRIME COULD BE CONSIDERED A MINORITY GROUP PROBLEM. MOST CAREERS WERE NOT CONTINUOUS AND MOST DELINQUENCY DID NOT LEAD TO A CRIME. AMONG THOSE WHO HAD MORE THAN ONE POLICE CONTACT, CAREERS WERE HETEROGENEOUS; FACTOR ANALYSIS FAILED TO SHOW ANY RACE/ETHNIC OR SEX GROUP IN EITHER COHORT. COMPOSITE SCORES OR CAREERS BASED ON SERIOUSNESS AND TYPE OF CONTACT PROVIDED LITTLE INCREASE IN PREDICTIVE EFFICIENCY OVER SIMPLE NUMBER OF POLICE CONTACTS. DETAILED TABULAR DATA IS PROVIDED THROUGHOUT. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)...ELW
Index Term(s): Cohort studies; Criminality prediction; Estimated crime incidence; Future trends; Juvenile crime patterns; Juvenile delinquency prediction; Prediction; Recidivism prediction; Trend analysis
Note: ABBREVIATED VERSION OF THIS PAPER WAS PRESENTED AT THE ANNUAL MEETINGS OF THE PACIFIC SOCIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION IN SAN DIEGO, MARCH 25-27, 1976
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=42273

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