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NCJ Number: 47287 Find in a Library
Title: CRIME AND BEHAVIORAL EPIDEMIOLOGY - CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS TO SWEDISH DATA (FROM BIOSOCIAL BASES OF CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR, 1977, BY SARNOFF A MEDNICK AND KARLO CRISTIANSEN - SEE NCJ-47285)
Author(s): G CARLSSON
Corporate Author: Gardner Press, Inc
United States of America
Date Published: 1977
Page Count: 19
Sponsoring Agency: Gardner Press, Inc
New York, NY 10003
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: MODELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRIME ARE FORMULATED AND TESTED IN INTERACTION WITH DATA.
Abstract: THE FIRST PART OF THE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CRIME AS AN ACTIVITY IS PRODUCED BY A RELATIVELY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION. STABILITY OF BEHAVIOR THROUGH TIME IS BELIEVED EVIDENT IN THE REPETITIVE PRODUCTION OF CRIME BY A PARTICULAR FEW. MODELS FOR PREDICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STABLE BEHAVIOR ARE CONSIDERED IN TWO GENERAL CATEGORIES -- ONE THAT SEES DEVELOPMENT STEMMING FROM SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS EXISTING IN THE EARLY FORMATIVE PERIOD OF AN INDIVIDUAL'S LIFE AND THE OTHER THAT SEES DEVELOPMENT AS A PROCESS INVOLVING A COMPLEX MATRIX OF TEMPORAL EVENTS AND CHANGING STIMULI THAT INCREASE OR DECREASE THE PROBABILITY OF CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR. USING DATA, IT IS SHOWN THAT CORRELATIONS BETWEEN TYPES OF ENVIRONMENTS IN EARLY YEARS AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR IS POOR. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STABLE CRIMINAL PATTERN IN AN INDIVIDUAL IS THUS BELIEVED TO BE FOUND IN A MODEL THAT INCORPORATES A MULTIPLICITY OF STIMULI OVER A PERIOD OF TIME, WITH EACH EVENT AFFECTING THE PROBABILITIES OF SUBSEQUENT CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR. WHILE NOT RULING OUT THE EFFECT OF EARLY ENVIRONMENT ON STABLE BEHAVIOR, IT IS CONSIDERED TO BE ONLY ONE ASPECT OF A DEVELOPMENT PROCESS LEADING TO STABLE CRIMINAL PATTERNS. THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE CHARACTER OF THIS PROCESS OF EVENTS AND STIMULI THAT INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF DEVIANT BEHAVIOR IS CONSIDERED THE TASK OF FUTURE RESEARCH. TABULAR DATA ARE INCLUDED. (RCB)
Index Term(s): Behavior patterns; Crime prediction; Mathematical modeling
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=47287

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