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NCJ Number: 48241 Find in a Library
Title: STUDY OF BASE EXPECTANCY TABLES FOR JUVENILE PROBATIONERS
Author(s): K WAI; S SUGIHARA; N KURODA
Corporate Author: Japan Ministry of Justice
Research and Training Institute
Japan
Date Published: 1976
Page Count: 7
Sponsoring Agency: Japan Ministry of Justice
Tokyo, Japan
National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Language: Japanese
Country: Japan
Annotation: THE EFFICIENCY OF THE PRESENT CLASSIFICATION TABLE FOR EVALUATING THE NONRECIDIVISM BASE EXPECTANCY OF JUVENILE PROBATIONERS IS EXAMINED, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONSTRUCTION OF NEW TABLES IS EXPLORED.
Abstract: A TOTAL OF 1,493 JUVENILES WERE DRAWN RANDOMLY FROM THOSE PLACED ON PROBATION IN JAPAN FROM DECEMBER 1971, TO FEBRUARY 1972, AND THEIR BACKGROUNDS, APPLICATION OF THE CLASSIFICATION TABLE, AND RECIDIVISM WERE INVESTIGATED AS OF NOVEMBER 10, 1973. THE LENGTH OF THE FOLLOWUP PERIOD LASTED 2 YEARS. THE OUTCOME OF THE FOLLOWUP STUDY WAS AS FOLLOWS: (1) NONFAILURE GROUP (NO ABSCONDING AND NO ARREST) -- 53.2 PERCENT; (2) PETTY FAILURE GROUP (ABSCONDING, DISMISSAL WITH OR WITHOUT HEARING FOR A FRESH OFFENSE) -- 31.8 PERCENT; (3) MAJOR FAILURE GROUP (FRESH PROBATION ORDER, TRAINING SCHOOL ORDER, SUSPENSION OF PROSECUTION, FINE, IMPRISONMENT) --14.9 PERCENT. WHILE THE POINTS GIVEN BY THE EXISTING CLASSIFICATION TABLE IN THE BEGINNING OF PROBATION SHOWED AN AGREEABLE EFFECTIVENESS IN PREDICTING LEVELS OF ADJUSTMENT EVALUATED BY PROBATION OFFICERS 2 YEARS LATER, SUCH LEVELS ARE DEEMED TOO SUBJECTIVE TO QUALIFY FOR PRECISE CRITERION OF PREDICTION. VARIOUS ATTEMPTS AT REVISION OF THE CLASSIFICATION TABLE LED TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THUS FAR A NEW 14-ITEM TABLE PRODUCED BY THE MULTIPLE CORRELATION RATIO METHOD IS MOST EFFICIENT AND QUALIFIED TO SUBSTITUTE FOR THE PRESENT TABLE IN PREDICTING THE CONDUCT OF PROBATIONERS AFTER TWO YEARS. A TABLE IS INCLUDED TO SHOW THE PREDICTING POWERS OF THE VARIOUS METHODS TESTED. (RCB)
Index Term(s): Japan; Juvenile offender classification; Juvenile probationers; Prediction; Probation outcome prediction; Recidivism; Studies; Techniques
Note: FROM BULLETIN OF THE CRIMINOLOGICAL RESEARCH DEPARTMENT, MINISTRY OF JUSTICE, JAPAN THIS ENGLISH VERSION WAS PREPARED BY MR. KENSAKU HASHIMOTO, INFORMATION AND LIAISON OFFICE, SECRETARIAT SECTION, MINISTRY OF JUSTICE, JAPAN
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=48241

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