skip navigation

PUBLICATIONS

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.

 

NCJ Number: 51018 Find in a Library
Title: FEEDBACK PROCESSES AND INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
Author(s): T R DAVIES
Date Published: 1977
Page Count: 170
Sponsoring Agency: UMI Dissertation Services
Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346
Sale Source: UMI Dissertation Services
300 North Zeeb Road
P.O. Box 1346
Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346
United States of America
Type: Thesis/Dissertation
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: SEVERAL HYPOTHESES PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF PAST SUCCESS OR FAILURE ON FUTURE TERRORIST BEHAVIOR ARE TESTED WITH A DISTRIBUTED LAG REGRESSION MODEL. FEEDBACK PROCESSES ARE DISCUSSED, AS ARE TERRORIST GOALS.
Abstract: THE FIRST SECTION OF THIS DISSERTATION DISCUSSES INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE AS GOAL-ORIENTED, PURPOSEFUL BEHAVIOR. FEEDBACK INFLUENCES ARE IDENTIFIED, THE CYBERNETIC MODEL USED FOR THIS RESEARCH IS DESCRIBED, AND THE PARTICULAR ADAPTATIONS OF THE CYBERNETIC MODEL REQUIRED TO TEST THESE DATA ARE EXPLAINED. BASICALLY, THIS MODEL IS A COMMUNICATIONS APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF FOREIGN POLICY AND HOLDS THAT SUCCESS OR FAILURE IS A FUNCTION OF BOTH TIME LAG AND TOTAL GAIN OR LOSS. DATA SOURCES FOR THE RESEARCH ARE ALSO DISCUSSED. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFICULTY OF VERIFYING INCIDENTS INVOLVING ONLY COUNTRIES OTHER THAN THE UNITED STATES, THIS RESEARCH IS LIMITED TO 204 TERRORIST INCIDENTS, WICH OCCURRED BETWEEN JANUARY 1968 AND APRIL 1974, AND WHICH TOOK PLACE EITHER IN THE UNITED STATES OR INVOLVED THE UNITED STATES AS VICTIM. EARLIER RESEARCHERS HAVE HYPOTHESIZED THAT SUCESS INCREASES THE NUMBER OF TERRORIST ATTACKS WHILE FAILURE DECREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF FUTURE ATTACKS. THE SHORT-TERM EFFECTS MAY BE JUST THE OPPOSITE. TERRORISTS USUALLY HAVE CAREFULLY THOUGHT-OUT PLANS. WHEN AN ATTACK SUCCEEDS, FOLLOWUP ATTACKS MAY OCCUR FOR 1 MONTH, AND THEN, OBJECTIVES ACHIEVED, THE GROUP WITHDRAWS. HOWEVER, OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME, SUCCESS LEADS OTHER GROUPS TO TRY THE SAME TACTICS. EFFECTS OF FAILURE ARE ALSO TIME-DEPENDENT. AN INITIAL FAILURE MAY RESULT IN INCREASED ATTACKS FOR 2 OR 3 MONTHS. IF THESE RENEWED EFFORTS FAIL, THE ATTACK RATE DROPS SHARPLY. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT CONSISTENT FAILURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DETERRENCE OF TERRORIST ATTACKS. CHARTS AND GRAPHS ILLUSTRATE THE PATTERNS FOUND. THE SOURCES OF THE DATA AND A BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE APPENDED. (GLR).
Index Term(s): Behavior patterns; Behavioral science research; Revolutionary or terrorist groups; Statistical analysis; Terrorism causes; Terrorism/Mass Violence; United States of America; Worldwide
Note: FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY - DOCTORAL DISSERTATION
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=51018

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.