skip navigation

PUBLICATIONS

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.

 

NCJ Number: 51206 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: HIGHER EDUCATION EMPLOYMENT FORECASTING - CRIMINAL JUSTICE MANPOWER
Author(s): J C SNELL; R HOLQUIST
Date Published: 1973
Page Count: 80
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: VARIOUS SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL FORCES THAT MAY SHAPE FUTURE DEMANDS FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE PERSONNEL AND, ULTIMATELY, DEMANDS FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE FACULTY ARE ASSESSED.
Abstract: EMPLOYER SURVEYS, BUDGET FORECASTS, POPULATION TRENDS, EXISTING MANPOWER POOLS, AND SOCAL FACTORS WHICH MAY LEAD TO INCREASES OR DECREASES IN CRIME AND HENCE, IN THE NEED FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE PERSONNEL ARE EXAMINED. EMPLOYER DEMANDS SHOULD BE BASED ON CONSERVATIVE BUDGET ESTIMATES, AND FACULTY ESTIMATES SHOULD BE EQUALLY CONSERVATIVE BECAUSE ATTRITION RATES ARE LOWER THAN EXPECTED AND THE SUPPLY OF GRADUATES WITH ADVANCED DEGREES IS GREATER THAN NEEDED. THE STABILIZATION OF POPULATION GROWTH AND THE DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF MALES AGED 15 TO 30 IS SEEN AS A FACTOR WHICH MAY REDUCE CRIME. HOWEVER, THE ACCELERATION OF URBAN SPRAWL AND THE DECLINE OF SOCIAL COHESION ARE FACTORS WHICH MAY INCREASE CRIME. WHILE SOME HAVE POSTULATED THAT INCREASED TECHNOLOGY WILL REDUCE CRIME, IT IS SUGGESTED THAT THIS TECHNOLOGY MAY PUT FURTHER STRESS ON SOCIETY AND ACTUALLY INCREASE CRIME. THE DEMAND FOR POLICE OFFICERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR INCREASE, BUT A CHANGE IN POLICE PHILOSOPHY DEEMPHASIZING REHABILITATION AND BUDGET PRIORITIES WILL PROBABLY MEAN THAT FEWER OF THESE OFFICERS WILL HAVE COLLEGE EDUCATIONS. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT THIS DECLINE IN DEMAND COUPLED WITH A DECREASE IN LEAA FUNDING WILL LEAD TO SHRINKING ENROLLMENTS IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE EDUCATION PROGRAMS AND SMALLER DEMAND FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE FACULTY. FOOTNOTES ARE INCLUDED FOR EACH CHAPTER. (GLR)
Index Term(s): Crime prediction; Criminal justice education; Degree programs; Estimating methods; Future trends; Planning; Police personnel; Police resource allocation; Prediction
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=51206

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.