skip navigation

PUBLICATIONS

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.

 

NCJ Number: 51469 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: INCAPACITATIVE FUNCTION OF PRISON INTERNMENT - A QUANTITATIVE APPROACH
Author(s): R SHINNAR
Date Published: 1976
Page Count: 50
Sponsoring Agency: Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
New York, NY 10020
National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: USING MEASURABLE FACTORS, A MATHEMATICAL MODEL IS DEVELOPED TO SHOW THE EFFECT OF IMPRISONMENT AS INCAPACITATION ON CRIMES WITH A HIGH RECIDIVISM RATE.
Abstract: NOTING THAT CRIME IS INCREASING WHILE THE PRISON POPULATION AND THE AVERAGE LENGTH OF A PRISON STAY IS DECREASING, THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL DEVELOPED CLAIMS TO MEASURE THE EFFECT OF MORE AND LONGER IMPRISONMENT ON THE CRIME RATE. THE BASIC MODEL USED IN ESTIMATING THE INCAPACITATION EFFECTS OF PRISONS WAS DESIGNED BY AVI IZCHAK AND SHINNAR (1973) AND SHINNAR AND SHINNAR (1975). THE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE MODEL HAVE ALSO BEEN DISCUSSED BY OTHER INVESTIGATORS (BELKIN 1972). THE FACTORS USED IN THE EQUATION ARE DEFINED AND THE EQUATION PRESENTED. RELIABILITY OF ESTIMATES, EVALUATION OF PRESENT DATA, INDICATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH, PREDICTIONS OF THE MODEL, AND INDICATIONS FOR POLICY ARE THE PRINCIPAL SUBJECTS DISCUSSED. THE MODEL INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OF RECIDIVIST CRIME WOULD REQUIRE THE FOLLOWING: HAVING COMMITTED A CRIME, (1) A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ARREST, AND HAVING BEEN ARRESTED, A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION; (2) A PRISON SENTENCE OF AT LEAST 3 YEARS (PREFERABLY 5 FOR SECOND TIMERS) FOR CRIMES LIKE ROBBERY AND BURGLARY; (3) A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ARREST, HAVING COMMITTED A CRIME, IN THE INNER CITIES AND BETTER SUPERVISION OF RECIDIVISTS; (4) A REDUCTION OF TIME BETWEEN ARREST AND COMMITMENT; AND (5) ADDITIONAL PRISON SPACE TO ACCOMMODATE INCREASES IN ARREST, CONVICTION, AND SENTENCES. WHILE IT IS BELIEVED THAT A REDUCTION IN RECIDIVIST CRIME CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED THROUGH ATTENTION TO THE FACTORS IN THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL, IT IS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT OTHER CONSIDERATIONS (COST, REHABILITATION EMPHASES, AND MORAL VALUES) ALSO AFFECT THE POLICY PURSUED. DATA USED IN THE MODEL ARE PROVIDED IN THE APPENDIX. REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED.
Index Term(s): Arrest and apprehension; Comparative analysis; Convictions; Crime Rate; Incarceration; Mathematical modeling; Recidivism; Sentencing/Sanctions
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=51469

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.