skip navigation

PUBLICATIONS

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.

 

NCJ Number: 51707 Find in a Library
Title: HANDBOOK OF FUTURES RESEARCH
Corporate Author: Greenwood Publishing Group
United States of America
Editor(s): J FOWLES
Date Published: 1978
Page Count: 834
Sponsoring Agency: Greenwood Publishing Group
Westport, CT 06881-5007
Sale Source: Greenwood Publishing Group
88 Post Road West
P.O. Box 5007
Westport, CT 06881-5007
United States of America
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: THE GROWTH, DIFFICULTIES, AND PROCEDURES OF FUTURE RESEARCH ARE EXAMINED, ALONG WITH THE FIELDS'S SUBSTANTIVE AREAS AND CHALLENGES, IN THIS ANTHOLOGY CONTAINING 46 ARTICLES.
Abstract: FUTURES RESEARCH IS EXPLORED IN TERMS OF ITS EMERGENCE, GLOBAL DIFFUSION, AND APPLICATION IN JAPAN. THE FALLIBILITY OF FUTURES RESEARCH METHODS AND OF FUTURISTS THEMSELVES IS UNDERSCORED WITH ATTENTION TO THE PROBLEMS OF PROBING THE FUTURE, METHODOLOGICAL SHORTCOMINGS, THE IDEOLOGIES OF FUTURISTS, THE PROBLEM OF VALUES IN FUTURES RESEARCH, AND THE PHENOMENON OF SELF-ALTERING PREDICTIONS (I.E., SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY, SELF-DEFEATING PROPHECY, SELF-ALTERING PROPHECY, REFLEXIVE PREDICTIONS). THE FOLLOWING PROCEDURES COMMONLY UTILIZED AND DEBATED IN FUTURES RESEARCH ARE DISCUSSED: SCENARIOS, TREND EXTRAPOLATION, THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE, CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS, SIMULATION MODELING AND GAMING, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND ASSESSMENT, AND SOCIAL INDICATORS AND SOCIAL FORECASTING. THE PRACTICE OF INTUITION AND THE UTILITY OF SCIENCE FICTION ARE CONSIDERED. THE CONTENT AREAS OF FUTURES RESEARCH AND THE SUBSTANTIVE AREAS OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG FUTURISTS ARE OUTLINED WITH RESPECT TO OPTIMISTIC AND PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOKS, THE POSTINDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AND THE EMERGING COUNTERECONOMY, FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH, FOOD PRODUCTION, FORECASTS FOR NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES, ENERGY SOURCES, IMPENDING ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE, URBAN AND GLOBAL FUTURES, SETTLEMENTS IN SPACE, COMMUNICATION, BIOMEDICAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL ISSUES, EDUCATION, AND POLITICS. FINALLY THE CHALLENGES OF FUTURES RESEARCH ARE OUTLINED, INCLUDING EXISTING RESEARCH TASKS, MISSION PLANNING, AND THE CHANGING NEEDS AND DIRECTIONS IN FUTURES RESEARCH. A LIST OF JOURNALS, PERIODIC REPORTS, GRADUATE PROGRAMS, AND OPERATIONS IN FUTURES RESEARCH IS APPENDED. REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED FOR EACH SELECTION. GRAPHS AND DIAGRAMS ILLUSTRATE THE TEXT. AN INDEX AND GLOSSARY ARE INCLUDED. (KBL)
Index Term(s): Evaluation; Future trends; Prediction; Research; Research methods; Theory
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=51707

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.