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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 63321 Find in a Library
Title: FORECASTING REPORTED CRIME DATA - SOME TESTS OF ALTERNATIVE MODELS (FROM CRIMINAL JUSTICE STATISTICS ASSOCIATION, INC. - PROCEEDINGS..., 1979 - SEE NCJ-63318)
Author(s): L R MACPHETERS; D E SCHLAGENHAUF
Corporate Author: Justice Research and Statistics Association
United States of America
Date Published: 1979
Page Count: 10
Sponsoring Agency: Justice Research and Statistics Association
Washington, DC 20002
National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Statistics
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: THIS PAPER DESCRIBES TESTS OF ALTERNATIVE MODELS FOR FORECASTING REPORTED CRIME DATA FOR A MEDIUM-SIZED CITY, TAMPA, FLA.
Abstract: RESOURCE ALLOCATION FOR CRIME CONTROL WITHIN A METROPOLITAN AREA MAY BE IMPROVED THROUGH SUCCESSFUL APPLICATION OF CRIME FORECASTING METHODS, YET IT IS PRIMARILY THE LARGER CITIES WHICH HAVE EXPERIMENTED WITH SUCH TECHNIQUES. A NUMBER OF ALTERNATIVE FORECASTING MODELS AND TECHNIQUES WHICH MIGHT REASONABLY BE APPLIED BY A SMALLER RESEARCH UNIT ARE COMPARED, AND THE APPROXIMATE COSTS OF THE METHODS ARE THEN WEIGHED AGAINST A LISTING OF POTENTIAL BENEFITS FROM IMPROVED ESTIMATES OF FUTURE CRIME LEVELS, MADE POSSIBLE THROUGH FORECASTING. THE FORECASTING METHODS TESTED INCLUDE A NAIVE MODEL, VARIATIONS OF SMOOTHING MODELS, AND BOX-JENKINS TECHNIQUES. MODELS ARE RATED ACCORDING TO FORECAST ERRORS. THE RELATIVE COSTS OF THE MODELS ARE REVIEWED, AND SOME BENEFITS OF CRIME FORECASTING ARE DISCUSSED. RESULTS OF THE STUDY SUGGEST THAT (1) ELABORATE MODELS ARE NOT ALWAYS NECESSARY FOR A USEFUL FORECAST AND (2) THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF INTUITIVE FORECAST UNDERTAKEN BY AN EXPERIENCED POLICE ADMINISTRATOR WOULD PROBABLY YIELD A COST-EFFECTIVE FORECAST FOR A MEDIUM-SIZED DEPARTMENT. TABULAR DATA AND REFERENCES ARE GIVEN. (MJW)
Index Term(s): Crime data files; Crime prediction; Crime Statistics; Estimating methods; Future trends; Models; Police resource allocation; Research methods
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=63321

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