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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 63326 Find in a Library
Title: BUILDING A SIMULATION MODEL TO ASSESS COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES AND PROCEDURES IN A DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS (FROM CRIMINAL JUSTICE STATISTICS ASSOCIATION, INC. - PROCEEDINGS..., 1979 - SEE NCJ-63318)
Author(s): G S TRACY; J A PHIFER; G HADDER; R S MILLER
Corporate Author: Justice Research and Statistics Association
United States of America
Date Published: 1979
Page Count: 7
Sponsoring Agency: Justice Research and Statistics Association
Washington, DC 20002
National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Survey
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: RESEARCH ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CRIME SLOPE IS A MORE CONSISTENT AND USEFUL INDICATOR OF CRIME TRENDS THAN IS THE CRIME RATE.
Abstract: AN EXAMINATION OF UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS (UCR) OVER THE PAST 14 YEARS REVEALS LONG-RANGE CRIME RATE TRENDS WHICH GROW EXPONENTIALLY WITH TIME. THE RESULT COMBINED WITH THE KNOWN EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN POPULATION HAS BEEN SHOWN TO RESULT IN A LINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF INDEX CRIMES AND POPULATION. THE PAPER DESCRIBES A METHOD TO COMPARE CRIME RATES BY USING A CRIME SLOPE AND INTERCEPT METHODOLOGY, AND IT SUGGESTS THAT REGRESSION ANALYSIS BE USED TO COMPUTE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND COMPARE THE RESULTS. THE RESULTS FROM USING THIS MEANS OF COMPARISON SUGGEST THAT A YEARLY TABULATION OF CRIME HAS ONLY YIELDED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE 1972-73 INTERVAL AND THAT CALIFORNIA HAS CONSISTENTLY HAD A CRIME INDEX LARGER THAN EXPECTED. COLORADO, NEW YORK, AND FLORIDA ALSO UPON OCCASION EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS. RESULTS THUS CONFIRMED THAT CRIME SLOPE IS A MORE CONSISTENT AND USEFUL INDICATOR OF CRIME TRENDS THAN IS THE CRIME RATE. CRIME RATE, ALTHOUGH EASIER TO COMPUTE, DOES NOT ALLOW COMPARISONS TO BE MADE IN AN EASY TO DIGEST, STATISTICALLY USEFUL MANNER. CRIME SLOPE ANALYSIS HAS THE DISADVANTAGE OF REQUIRING LENGTHY COMPUTATIONS; HOWEVER, WITH THE ALMOST UNIVERSAL AVAILABILITY OF COMPUTERS, THIS DRAWBACK IS MINIMAL. TABULAR DATA ARE INCLUDED. (MJW)
Index Term(s): Corrections management; Crime patterns; Crime prediction; Crime rate studies; Crime Statistics; Crime surveys; FBI Uniform Crime Reports; Simulation
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=63326

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