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NCJ Number: 63465 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: CRIMINAL JUSTICE PREDICTION SCALES - A SURVEY OF THE FIFTY STATES
Author(s): J A HINSHAW
Corporate Author: Virginia Dept of Corrections
United States of America
Date Published: 1978
Page Count: 52
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Virginia Dept of Corrections
Richmond, VA 23261
Publication Number: REPORT NO 7837
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Statistics
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: FOURTEEN PREDICTION SCALES FOCUSING ON VARIOUS ASPECTS OF CRIMINALITY, PAROLE, AND PROBATION, AS DEVELOPED THROUGH DATA COLLECTED IN A 50-STATE SURVEY BY THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS, ARE PRESENTED.
Abstract: THE PROJECT WAS INITIATED TO DETERMINE THE LEVEL OF USE OF PREDICTION IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AND TO GATHER CURRENT DATA RELATIVE TO PREDICTION. THE ACQUIRED DATA INDICATE THAT PREDICTION METHODOLOGY IS NOT USED IN MOST RESEARCH ACTIVITIES OR IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE DECISIONMAKING PROCESS. AS A RESULT OF THE INITIAL SURVEY, 14 PREDICTION SCALES WERE DEVELOPED. THEY PURPORT TO QUANTIFY PAROLE SUCCESS AND FAILURE, RISK OF ASSAULT AND PROPERTY CRIMES AMONG PAROLEES, INMATES, PROPENSITY FOR ESCAPE, UNRESPONSIVE INMATE CHARACTERISTICS, FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH INSTITUTIONAL COMMITMENT, AND THE COMMUNITY RISK ASSOCIATED WITH PROBATION PLACEMENT. THE NUMBER OF CASES FROM WHICH THE SCALES WERE DEVELOPED RANGES FROM LESS THAN 200 TO SEVERAL THOUSAND, AND THE TECHNIQUES EMPLOYED TO PRODUCE THE SCALES VARY IN SOPHISTICATION AND COMPLEXITY. BURGESS, EXPERIENCE, AND BASE EXPECTANCY SCALES ARE INCLUDED. SEVERAL RESEARCHERS USED MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS, CONFIGURAL ANALYSIS, AND DISCRIMINATE ANALYSIS. THE ACCURACY OF ALL PREDICTION DEVICES DEPENDS ON THE RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY OF THE VARIABLES IN THE DATA BASE AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE CONSTRUCT SAMPLE IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE TARGET POPULATION. THIS FACT IS TRUE OF THE DEVELOPED PREDICTION SCALES. NO SCALE APPEARING IN THIS REPORT SHOULD BE USED FOR ANY PURPOSE WITHOUT FIRST CHECKING ITS PREDICTIVE VALIDITY ON THE INTENDED POPULATION. TABULAR STATISTICAL DATA, GRAPHS, CHARTS, AND FORMS ARE PROVIDED IN THE SURVEY REPORT. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--LWM).
Index Term(s): Crime prediction; Parole outcome prediction; Prediction; Probation outcome prediction; State-by-state analyses; Statistics; Surveys
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=63465

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