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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 64017 Find in a Library
Title: PREDICTION STUDIES
Journal: CRIMINOLOGIA  Volume:1  Issue:3  Dated:(1978)  Pages:5-24
Author(s): J E H WILLIAMS
Corporate Author: Social
Direccion de Gobernacion
Departamento de Readaptacion
Mexico
Date Published: 1978
Page Count: 20
Format: Article
Language: Spanish
Country: Mexico
Annotation: THE METHODOLOGIES AND COMPARATIVE ACCURACY OF PROBATION OUTCOME PREDICTION STUDIES ARE DISCUSSED IN RELATION TO THE STUDIES USEFULNESS AS DECISIONMAKING TOOLS AND TO PAROLE VIOLATION AND RECIDIVISM RATES.
Abstract: A BRIEF HISTORICAL CONSIDERATION OF CRIME AND CRIMINALITY AND PAROLE OUTCOME PREDICTION STUDIES INDICATES SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THEIR METHODOLOGIES AND ACCURACY AND THOSE OF WEATHER FORECASTS AND ACTUARIAL TABLES USED BY INSURANCE COMPANIES TO DETERMINE ACCEPTABLE RISKS. STUDIES CONDUCTED IN FOREIGN COUNTRIES, SUCH AS CANADA, POLAND, WEST GERMANY, GREECE, AND OTHERS ARE CITED, WITH THE CAVEAT THAT EACH COUNTRY MUST RELY CHIEFLY ON ITS OWN RESEARCH IN THIS FIELD, BECAUSE CRIMES AND CRIMINALS ARE AS DIFFERENT IN EACH COUNTRY AS LOCAL CONDITIONS. THE PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF PROBATION OUTCOME PREDICTION STUDIES AND THEIR COMPARISON TO ACTUAL PAROLE VIOLATION AND RECIDIVISM RATES CONSIST IN THEIR USE AS TOOLS FOR PROBATION OFFICERS IN MAKING EDUCATED GUESSES OF HOW MANY HIGH-RISK CASES THEY CAN INCLUDE IN THEIR CASELOADS, THE DEGREE OF SUPERVISION REQUIRED BY EACH PROBATIONER UNDER THEIR JURISDICTION, WHETHER AND FOR WHOM SUPERVISION CAN BE RELAXED OR SHOULD BE INTENSIFIED, AND FOR WHOM PAROLE SHOULD REVOKED ALTOGETHER. COMPUTER-AIDED STUDIES IN THIS FIELD ARE BEING CONDUCTED IN ENGLAND AND IN THE UNITED STATES. AMONG THE LATTER IS THE CALIFORNIA-BASED 'SIMULATION AS A BASIS OF SOCIAL AGENTS' DECISIONS' (SIMBAD) WHICH SUPPLIES PROBATION OFFICERS WITH CONTINUOUSLY UPDATED INFORMATION. --IN SPANISH. (LGR).
Index Term(s): Criminality prediction; England; Probation or parole decisionmaking; Probation or parole officers; Probation outcome prediction; Probationers; United States of America
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=64017

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