skip navigation

PUBLICATIONS

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.

 

NCJ Number: 64253 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: REVENUE LOSS OF ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO SMUGGLING (FROM COSTS OF CRIME, 1979, BY CHARLES M GRAY - SEE NCJ-64248)
Author(s): M C GRITZKE
Corporate Author: Sage Publications, Inc
United States of America
Date Published: 1979
Page Count: 11
Sponsoring Agency: Minnesota Crime Control Planning Board (See Minnesota Criminal Justice Program)

Sage Publications, Inc
Thousand Oaks, CA 91320
US Dept of Justice
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 77 AF AX 0027
Type: Program/Project Evaluation
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EFFORTS AGAINST CIGARETTE SMUGGLING IN MINNESOTA WAS ESTIMATED USING AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL DESCRIBING THE COMPONENTS OF THE MARKET FOR CIGARETTES.
Abstract: MINNESOTA HIRED TWO FULL-TIME SMUGGLING INVESTIGATORS IN JULY 1976 AND ANOTHER TWO IN 1977. DATA FROM BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIRING WERE USED TO ESTIMATE THE PROGRAM IMPACT. USING A SUPPLY EQUATION BASED ON PRODUCTION COSTS AND PRICE AND A DEMAND EQUATION BASED ON PRICE NET OF TAXES, TAX RATE, PERSONAL TASTES AND POPULATION, THE QUANTITY OF CIGARETTES SOLD WAS ESTIMATED. THE MODEL WAS USED TO FORECAST CIGARETTE TAX VOLUME. ACTUAL CIGARETTE TAX VOLUMES WERE COMPARED WITH PREDICTED VOLUMES. USING THE TWO STAGE LEAST SQUARES METHOD AND QUARTERLY DATA FROM 1968 TO 1976, THE MODEL PRODUCED LARGE PREDICTION ERRORS AND THUS MADE IMPOSSIBLE THE EVALUATION OF THE ANTISMUGGLING PROJECT. TWO ALTERNATIVE MODELS EITHER PRODUCED POORER RESULTS OR LACKED REQUISITE DATA. BECAUSE THE ANTISMUGGLING PROGRAM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TOTAL TAX REVENUES, ITS EVALUATION IS IMPOSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE MODEL CAN SERVE AS A CIGARETTE TAX REVENUE PREDICTOR WHICH INDICATES THE IMPACT OF CIGARETTE TAX RATES AND PRICE CHANGES. IT CAN ALSO GAUGE THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN SMOKING REGULATIONS. FOR EXAMPLE, IT SHOWED THAT THE MINNESOTA CLEAN AIR ACT HAD NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON CIGARETTE TAX REVENUES DURING ITS FIRST YEAR OF IMPLEMENTATION. THE MODEL HAS MANY POSSIBLE POLICY APPLICATIONS. TABLES, NOTES, AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (CFW)
Index Term(s): Crime costs; Crime specific countermeasures; Economic analysis; Minnesota; Program evaluation; Smuggling/Trafficking
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=64253

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.