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NCJ Number: 64266 Find in a Library
Title: RATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR PROBATIONERS
Author(s): C WENTZ; R J OLDROYD
Corporate Author: Utah Dept of Corrections
United States of America
Date Published: 1979
Page Count: 26
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Utah Council on Criminal Justice Admin
Salt Lake City, UT 84111
Utah Dept of Corrections
Salt Lake City, UT 84114
Grant Number: S 78 F 3 1
Publication Number: REPORT N 7
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: AS ONE DIMENSION OF A SENTENCING GUIDELINE MATRIX, UTAH'S STATE DIVISION OF CORRECTIONS AND JUDICIAL COUNCIL HISTORY/RISK ASSESSMENT SCALE IS TESTED FOR ITS ABILITY TO PREDICT PROBATION OUTCOME.
Abstract: TWELVE VARIABLES, INCLUDING AGE AT DATE OF CONVICTION AND AT FIRST ARREST, PRIOR JUVENILE RECORD OR ADULT ARRESTS OR CONVICTIONS, AND CURRENT CHARGES PENDING OR DISMISSED, ANALYZED TO DISCOVER THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF PROBATION. PREDICTIVE VALIDITY FOR BOTH MISDEMEANANTS AND FELONS WAS TESTED. THE TEST OF CHARACTERISTICS OF FELONY PROBATIONERS, A SAMPLE OF 50 SUCCESSES AND 50 FAILURES, RESULTED IN 8 OF THE 13 VARIABLES ATTAINING SIGNIFICANCE (.05 LEVEL). THE EXAMINATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF MISDEMEANANT PROBATIONERS, A SAMPLE OF 50 SUCCESSES AND 50 FAILURES, RESULTED IN 3 OF THE 13 VARIABLES BEING SIGNIFICANT. THE COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF FELONY AND MISDEMEANANT PROBATIONERS RESULTED IN 10 OF THE 13 VARIABLES ATTAINING SIGNIFICANCE. SOME OF THE VARIABLES WERE SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THE .01 LEVEL. THE PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF THE TOTAL SCORE, .48 FOR FELONS, IS RELATIVELY HIGH COMPARED TO THAT OF SIMILAR SCALES. NEVERTHELESS, THE HISTORY/RISK ASSESSMENT SCALE HAS LIMITED PREDICTIVE POWER, AND ALL DECISIONS MADE UTILIZING THIS SCALE SHOULD BE RELATIVE TO GROUPS RATHER THAN INDIVIDUALS. INDIVIDUAL DECISIONS ON CASES SHOULD BE MADE AFTER CONSIDERING OTHER AGGRAVATING OR MITIGATING CIRCUMSTANCES. TABULAR DATA AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--MHP)
Index Term(s): Felony; Misdemeanor; Parole outcome prediction; Probation outcome prediction; Sentencing guidelines; Utah
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=64266

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