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NCJ Number: 64267 Find in a Library
Title: PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF THE HISTORY/RISK ASSESSMENT FOR PAROLEES
Author(s): A ANTHONY; R J OLDROYD
Date Published: 1979
Page Count: 14
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Grant Number: S-78-F-3-1
Publication Number: REPORT N 1
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: OFFENSE SERIOUSNESS AND HISTORY/RISK FORM THE BASIS OF SENTENCING AND PAROLE GUIDELINES ADOPTED BY THE UTAH STATE BOARD OF PARDONS, AND THE PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF HISTORY/RISK ASSESSMENT WAS DETERMINED.
Abstract: HISTORY IS RELEVANT TO SENTENCING AND PAROLE IF ONE ASSUMES THAT OFFENDERS WHO HAVE COMMITTED MORE OFFENSES AND HAVE RECEIVED MORE EXPOSURE TO CORRECTIONAL PROGRAMS ARE MORE CULPABLE (DESERVING OF PUNISHMENT). RISK REFLECTS THE IDEA THAT PERSONS WHO ARE MOST LIKELY TO COMMIT CRIMES SHOULD BE SUPERVISED MOST RESTRICTIVELY. UTAH STATUTES SPECIFY THE LENGTH OF PAROLE AS 3 YEARS. THE UTAH STATE BOARD OF PARDONS WILL CONSIDER ANYONE FOR TERMINATION OF PAROLE AFTER 2 YEARS. TO VALIDATE THE PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF HISTORY/RISK ASSESSMENT, A SAMPLE WAS SELECTED FROM DISCHARGE RECORDS OF THE UTAH STATE PRISON THAT INCLUDED PAROLEES DISCHARGED TO PAROLE FROM JANUARY 1976 THROUGH JUNE 1979. THE SAMPLE POPULATION INCORPORATED 70 PAROLEES, WITH PAROLE SUCCESS OR FAILURE DEFINED FOR EACH. IT WAS DETERMINED THAT HISTORY/RISK ASSESSMENT CAN SEGREGATE OFFENDERS INTO GROUPS WITH DIFFERENT PROBABILITIES OF SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETING PAROLE SUPERVISION. BECAUSE OF THE DANGER OF FALSE PREDICTIONS, HOWEVER, THE USE OF HISTORY/RISK ASSESSMENT AS A DECISIONMAKING TOOL MAY BE UNWISE. STUDIES OF PAROLEE SUCCESS-FAILURE ARE REVIEWED, AND FIGURES, TABLES, AND REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (DEP)
Index Term(s): Criminal histories; Parole; Parole board; Parole outcome prediction; Sentencing guidelines; Sentencing/Sanctions; Utah
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http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=64267

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