skip navigation

PUBLICATIONS

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.

 

NCJ Number: 64396 Find in a Library
Title: APPLYING TIME SERIES STRATEGIES - AN UNDERUTILIZED SOLUTION (FROM IMPROVING EVALUATIONS, 1979, BY LOIS-ELLIN DATTA AND ROBERT PERLOFF - SEE NCJ-64392)
Author(s): M S KNAPP
Corporate Author: Sage Publications, Inc
United States of America
Date Published: 1979
Page Count: 17
Sponsoring Agency: Sage Publications, Inc
Thousand Oaks, CA 91320
Type: Program/Project Evaluation
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: THIS RESEARCH PAPER DESCRIBES THE USE OF TIME-SERIES DATA TO ROLE OUT COMPETING HYPOTHESES AND ESTABLISH CAUSALITY IN PROGRAM EVALUATION.
Abstract: TIME-SERIES STRATEGIES USE QUANTITATIVE DATA, BUILD CAREFULLY CONTROLLED RESEARCH DESIGNS, AND INCREASINGLY INVOLVE SOPHISTICATED FORMS OF DATA ANALYSIS. THE FRAMEWORK FOCUSES DIRECTLY ON THE INDIVIDUAL UNIT AND ALLOWS INVESTIGATION OF EFFECT PATTERNS IN ADDITION TO EFFECTS MEASURABLE AT ANY ONE POINT IN TIME. IT IS AN EVOCATIVE MECHANISM WHEREBY HYPOTHESES CAN BE GENERATED SYSTEMATICALLY, AND IT DEMONSTRATES THE PERSISTENCE OF EFFECTS OVER TIME AND THE REPLICABILITY OF EFFECTS ACROSS INDIVIDUAL UNITS. IN ADDITION TO THESE CONCEPTUAL CONTRIBUTIONS, TIME-SERIES STRATEGIES BRING TO CERTAIN TYPES OF EVALUATION SITUATIONS ADVANTAGES OF A MORE PRACTICAL KIND. UNSTABLE TREATMENTS CAN BE ACCOMMODATED MORE FLEXIBLY BY DESIGNS LOOKING FOR CHANGING PATTERNS OVER TIME. TIME-REFERENCED EVALUATIONS CAN BE MOUNTED AFTER THE FACT, IF RELIABLE RECORDS EXISTS, OR A MORE SOLID BASIS THAN THE SELECTIVE MEMORIES OF PARTICIPANTS. DATA FROM AN EVALUATION STUDY MAY BE UNDERSTOOD MORE INTUITIVELY, AND MORE FLEXIBILITY EXISTS IN DATA REPORT TIMING. FURTHERMORE, TIME-SERIES EVALUATIONS ARE CHEAP TO IMPLEMENT. SPECIAL LIMITATIONS EXIST, HOWEVER. DESIGN COMPLEXITIES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO IMPLEMENT. VARIABLES ASSESSED BY COMPLEX TESTS OR INTERVIEWS ARE EXCLUDED FROM TIME SERIES TREATMENT. TIME SERIES STUDIES OFTEN TAKE A LONG TIME TO COMPLETE. ESTABLISHING A LONG ENOUGH BASELINE TO ALLOW SOLID INTERPRETATIONS OF CHANGES IN THE DATA SERIES IS ANOTHER FREQUENT PROBLEM, AND RESULTS, WHEN AVAILABLE ARE GENERAL TO LARGE POPULATIONS ONLY IN A SPECIAL SENSE. CHANGES IN RECORDKEEPING, SHIFTS IN THE COMPOSITION OF AN AGGREGATED UNIT OVER TIME, AND MISSING DATA CAN COMPLICATE INTERPRETATION OF A TIME SERIES. NONETHELESS, TIME-SERIES APPROACHES SEEM TO OFFER A POWERFUL POTENTIAL TO ALLOW THOSE WHO WISH TO FORM AN EVALUATIVE JUDGMENT OF AN ONGOING PROGRAMMATIC EFFORT TO COMBINE SYSTEMIC ARRAYS OF PRECISE MEASUREMENT AT REGULAR INTERVALS WITH THE UNFOLDING NARRATIVE OF EVENTS WHICH INCLUDES A KNOWLEDGE OF THE START AND DURATION OF THE PROGRAM. REFERENCES ARE CITED. (MJW)
Index Term(s): Evaluation; Evaluation techniques; Evaluative research; Program evaluation
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=64396

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.