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NCJ Number: 64693 Find in a Library
Title: POLITICS OF CORRECTIONAL REFORM - AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH TO THE NATURAL HISTORY OF SOCIAL CHANGE
Journal: QUARTERLY  Volume:36  Issue:3  Dated:(AUTUMN 1979)  Pages:16-36
Author(s): A D MILLER; L E OHLIN; R B COATES
Corporate Author: Pennsylvania Assoc on Probation, Parole & Correction
United States of America
Date Published: 1979
Page Count: 21
Sponsoring Agency: Pennsylvania Assoc on Probation, Parole & Correction
Camp Hill, PA 17011
Sale Source: Pennsylvania Assoc on Probation, Parole & Correction
4075 Market Street
Camp Hill, PA 17011
United States of America
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: A MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION MODEL PROJECTS A STORY OF CORRECTIONAL REFORM AND COUNTER-REFORM AS AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH TO THE NATURAL HISTORY OF SOCIAL CHANGE.
Abstract: THE SIMULATION WAS CONSTRUCTED BY CONCEPTUALIZING SEVEN VARIABLES, EACH WITH FROM TWO TO SIX CATEGORIES, AND THEN DETAILING THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE VARIABLES IN TWO STEPS: (1) LOGICAL IDENTIFICATION, FROM THE CONCEPTUALIZATION OF THE VARIABLES THEMSELVES, OF WHAT RELATIONSHIPS ARE POSSIBLE AND (2) EMPIRICAL DETERMINATION OF WHAT SPECIFIC RELATIONSHIPS ACTUALLY OCCUR. THIS PROCESS YIELDED A SET OF EQUATIONS WHICH THEN COULD BE USED TO PROJECT THE REFORM AND COUNTER-REFORMS FORWARD FROM A HISTORICAL BASELINE. HERE IT IS APPLIED TO THE MASSACHUSETTS YOUTH CORRECTIONAL SYSTEM. THE BASELINE USED WAS LATE 1968; PROJECTIONS WERE MADE FORWARD FOR 31 INTERVALS 6-MONTH EACH TO EARLY 1984. THE SEVEN KEY VARIABLES WERE YOUTH-COMMUNITY RELATIONSHIP, ACTION AFFECTING YOUTH AND COMMUNITY, STAFF-YOUTH POWER DISTRIBUTION, ACTION AFFECTING STAFF AND YOUTH, INTEREST GROUP POWER, ACTION AFFECTING INTEREST GROUPS, AND ACTION AFFECTING CORRECTIONS. WHEN THE LOGICAL PRINCIPLES WERE APPLIED TO THESE SEVEN KEY RELATIONSHIPS AND A MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION WAS PERFORMED, THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SPECIFIC TYPES OF EFFORT TO PRODUCE CHANGE WAS CLEARLY SHOWN, AS WERE THE RESULTING CHANGES AND THE FEEDBACK OF THESE RESULTS ON CONTINUING FORCES FOR CHANGE. CHARTS AND DIAGRAMS ILLUSTRATE THE INFLUENCE OF THESE SEVEN VARIABLES ON ONE ANOTHER IN EFFECTING CHANGE AND REFORM, BOTH LIBERAL AND CONSERVATIVE. THE ANALYSIS PROVED TO BE OF PRACTICAL POLICY IMPORTANCE AND SERVED AS A USEFUL GUIDE FOR FURTHER DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS AND PLANNING. ALSO, AS THE MODEL USED IN THIS SIMULATION OF CORRECTIONS CHANGE WAS FURTHER DEVELOPED, ADDITIONAL PARALLELS COULD BE SEEN WITH THEORIES OF CHANGE IN SOCIETY. (MHP)
Index Term(s): Correctional institutions (juvenile); Correctional reform; Future trends; Massachusetts; Mathematical modeling; Prediction; Simulation
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