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NCJ Number: 65387 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE AND PRACTICAL APPROACH TOWARDS PREDICTING BAIL RISK
Author(s): D K SEIGFRIED
Date Published: 1977
Page Count: 65
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: A STATISTICAL MODEL IS USED TO DEVELOP A PROFILE OF A 'GOOD BAIL RISK' FOR THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA IN ORDER TO ESTABLISH MORE EFFECTIVE PRETRIAL RELEASE CRITERIA.
Abstract: THE CRITERIA DEVELOPED BY THE VERA INSTITUTE OF JUSTICE DURING THE 1960'S FOR ESTIMATING BAIL ELIGIBILITY, AND THE MODIFIED VERSION OF SUCH CRITERIA USED BY THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA, WAS SYSTEMATICALLY TESTED. THE VERA INSTITUTE'S MODEL EMPLOYS MULTIPLE REGRESSION TECHNIQUES AND WAS DEVELOPED FROM DATA OBTAINED DURING RESPECTIVE EVALUATIONS BY THE PHILADELPHIA PRETRIAL SERVICES DIVISION OF A RANDOM SAMPLE OF 1,842 DEFENDANTS INTERVIEWED BY THE PHILADELPHIA BAIL AGENCY BETWEEN APRIL AND JUNE 1973. OF THE 47 VARIABLES FOUND TO BE STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT IN PREDICTING FAILURE TO APPEAR (FTA), 18 WERE SELECTED FOR THE FINAL PROCEDURE TO ESTIMATE BAIL RISK IN PHILADELPHIA. A SERIES OF RANDOM SAMPLES OF 697 DEFENDANTS INTERVIEWED BY THE RELEASE ON RECOGNIZANCE UNIT (ROR) IN MARCH AND APRIL 1976 WERE TAKEN, AND INFORMATION WAS RECORDED ON FTA, REARREST, CRIMINAL HISTORY, DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES, AND COMMUNITY TIES. A NEW POINT SYSTEM BASED ON THESE STATISTICAL PROFILES GENERATED FOR FTA AND NON-FTA DEFENDANTS WAS THEN APPLIED TO ESTIMATE THE PROBABILITY OF COURT APPEARANCE FOR INDIVIDUAL DEFENDANTS. A PRACTICAL METHOD FOR APPLYING THIS REVISED POINT SYSTEM BY THE STAFF AT THE PHILADELPHIA BAIL AGENCY IS DESCRIBED. THE GREATER EFFICIENCY AND REDUCED NUMBER OF ERRORS ACHIEVED WITH THE NEW MODEL'S PRETRIAL RELEASE CRITERIA FOR PHILADELPHIA AND OTHER JURISDICTIONS WERE DEMONSTRATED. MINIMIZING THE RISK THAT DEFENDANTS RELEASED WILL FAIL TO APPEAR WHILE INCREASING THE NUMBER RELEASED WHO WILL NOT FAIL TO APPEAR WILL BENEFIT THE ENTIRE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AND SOCIETY IN TERMS OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC COSTS. OVER 30 REFERENCES, AS WELL AS FOOTNOTES, FIGURES, AND TABLES ARE PROVIDED. AN OUTLINE OF THE POINT SYSTEM AND RELATED INFORMATION ARE APPENDED. (DEG)
Index Term(s): Bail jumping; Bail reform; Bail/Financial Release; Models; Pennsylvania; Pretrial release
Note: UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE - MASTER'S THESIS
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=65387

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