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NCJ Number: 66381 Find in a Library
Title: COLORADO - DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS - INMATE POPULATION PROJECTIONS, 1980-1985
Author(s): T G CRAGE; C S HROMAS
Corporate Author: Office of Information Systems
Colorado Department of
Corrections
United States of America
Date Published: 1980
Page Count: 20
Publication Number: 80-2
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Statistics
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: COLORADO INMATE POPULATIONS ARE PROJECTED FOR 1980 THROUGH 1985.
Abstract: INMATE POPULATION PROJECTIONS, WHICH HAVE BEEN PREPARED BY THE COLORADO DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS SINCE 1976, HAVE HAD AN AGGREGATE ERROR RATE OF 2.5 PERCENT FOR THE 5 PROJECTIONS ISSUED. PROJECTIONS ARE REVISED AFTER 6 OR 12 MONTH INTERVALS, DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY MAJOR VIOLATION OF ASSUMPTIONS OCCURS DURING THE 6 MONTHS FOLLOWING RELEASE OF A PROJECTION. A CHANGE IN PROJECTION ASSUMPTIONS OCCURED IN 1980 WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRESUMPTIVE SENTENCING LAW (H.B.1589). THIS LAW CALLS FOR IMPOSITION OF A FIXED TERM OF INCARCERATION WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW RANGE, UNLESS AGGRAVATING OR MITIGATING CIRCUMSTANCES JUSTIFY A DIFFERENT SENTENCE. SINCE THE NEW LEGISLATION, THE NUMBER OF COMMITMENTS HAS BEEN HIGHER THAN PAST EXPERIENCE WOULD HAVE PREDICTED, AND THE AVERAGE LENGTH OF INCARCERATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. AS WITH OTHER RECENT PROJECTIONS, A STATISTICAL PROJECTION MODEL DRIVEN BY SEVERAL KEY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT FUTURE EVENTS WAS USED. THE SET OF ASSUMPTIONS USED WERE AS FOLLOWS: (1) COLORADO'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL INCREASE TO 5 PERCENT BY DECEMBER 1981; (2) THE AVERAGE LENGTH OF INCARCERATION FOR OFFENDERS NOW BEING RECEIVED WILL BE 28.5 MONTHS; (3) A TOTAL OF 3.7 PERCENT OF ALL COMMITMENTS WILL HAVE CONSECUTIVE SENTENCES; (4) PRESUMPTIVE SENTENCES WILL AVERAGE 103 PERCENT OF THE MIDPOINT OF THE PRESUMPTIVE RANGES; AND (5) NO SIGNIFICANT LEGISLATIVE, JUDICIAL, OR EXECUTIVE CHANGES IN CRIMINAL LAW OR POLICY WILL OCCUR. BASED ON THESE ASSUMPTIONS, COLORADO CAN EXPECT A PRISON POPULATION OF 3,214 BY 1984, A 19 PERCENT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 4 YEARS, OR GROWTH OF NEARLY 5 PERCENT ANNUALLY. THE APPENDIXES CONTAIN TABULAR DATA.
Index Term(s): Colorado; Determinate Sentencing; Inmate statistics; Prison population prediction
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=66381

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