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NCJ Number: 69527 Find in a Library
Title: HOMICIDE, CAPITAL PUNISHMENT, AND GUN OWNERSHIP - AN AGGREGATE ANALYSIS OF US HOMICIDE TRENDS FROM 1947 TO 1976
Author(s): G D KLECK
Date Published: 1979
Page Count: 163
Sponsoring Agency: UMI Dissertation Services
Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346
Sale Source: UMI Dissertation Services
300 North Zeeb Road
P.O. Box 1346
Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346
United States of America
Type: Thesis/Dissertation
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: A MODEL EXPLAINING INCREASES IN THE U.S. HOMICIDE RATE, 1960-1974, IS CONSTRUCTED AND USED TO EVALUATE THE EFFECT ON THE HOMICIDE RATE OF GUN OWNERSHIP, THE DETERRENT EFECT OF CAPITAL PUNISHMENT AND THE INCAPACITATING EFFECT OF PRISON.
Abstract: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE REVEALS THAT PREVIOUS STUDIES OF THE EFFECTS OF GUN OWNERSHIP, CAPITAL PUNISHMENT, AND IMPRISONMENT ON HOMICIDE FAILED BECAUSE OF A LACK OF A HOMICIDE MODEL. THE HOMICIDE MODEL PRESENTED HERE IS AS FOLLOWS: THE GREATER THE NUMBER OF ROBBERIES, THE AMOUNT OF ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION, AND THE PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION AGED 15-24, MALE, BLACK, URBAN, AND LOWER CLASS, THE GREATER THE HOMICIDE RATE. A DYNAMIC STRUCTURAL EQUATION IS CONSTRUCTED BASED ON THIS MODEL AND SUPPLEMENTARY DATA IS USED TO INTERPRET STRUCTURAL EQUATION RESULTS. THE STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL IS A SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION ALLOWING FOR RECIPROCAL CAUSATION BETWEEN HOMICIDE, AND CONVICTION AND CLEARANCE RATES, AND GUN OWNERSHIP. THE EQUATION IS ESTIMATED USING TWO-STAGE LEAST-SQUARE REGRESSION. WHEN THE MODEL IS SUBMITTED TO ROBUSTNESS AND FORECASTING TESTS, IT PASSES SUCCESSFULLY. RESULTS OF THE STUDY SHOW THAT USE OF THE DEATH PENALTY, 1947-1967, HAD NO EFFECT ON THE HOMICIDE RATE, PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE LOW NUMBERS OF EXECUTIONS. THUS, CONTINUING THE DEATH PENALTY, UNLESS IT IS USED SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OFTEN, WILL NOT CUT THE HOMICIDE RATE. HOWEVER, LOWER CONVICTION, CLEARANCE, AND IMPRISONMENT RATES CORRESPOND TO A SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN HOMICIDES FROM 1960-1975. FINALLY, HOMICIDE AND GUN OWNERSHIP SEEM TO ENCOURAGE EACH OTHER. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT HOMICIDE INCREASED DRASTICALLY AFTER 1960 AS THE POST-WAR BABY BOOM REACHED VIOLENCE-PRONE ADOLESCENCE AND POLICE COULD NOT KEEP UP WITH THE CRIME BOOM. LIBERALIZATION OF SENTENCING AND DECREASED PRISON POPULATIONS IN THE 1960'S AGGRAVATED THE TREND, AS DID INCREASED GUN OWNERSHIP DUE TO FEAR OF INCREASING CRIME. REFERENCES, NOTES, TABLES, AND APPENDICES ARE INCLUDED.
Index Term(s): Capital punishment; Crime Rate; Deterrence; Gun Control; Homicide; Models; Sentencing/Sanctions; Trend analysis
Note: UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN - DOCTORAL THESIS.
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=69527

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