NCJ Number: 70987
Title: Predicting Recidivism Among Youthful Offenders
Author(s): I A Tucker
Date Published: 1977
Page Count: 75
Sponsoring Agency: UMI Dissertation Services
Sale Source: UMI Dissertation Services
Type: Thesis/Dissertation
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: Data from 300 juvenile offender cases were analyzed to determine if different indexes of behavior existed for youthful offenders who became recidivists and those who satisfactorily adjusted to society.
Abstract: Incentive for this dissertation was provided by the need for an objective method to predict behavior of youthful offenders when they first enter the juvenile justice system, thereby resulting in a more effective rehabilitation program. A brief discussion of recidivism is followed by a review of the literature in the areas of juvenile delinquency, prediction methods used in corrections, and studies dealing with recidivism among juveniles. Data for this study were compiled from a sample of 300 cases of juvenile offenders between 15 and 18 years who had been referred to the University of Arizona Rehabilitation Center for diagnostic testing between June 1972 and May 1973. Descriptive information from the files, test scores, recommendations based on testing and observations, and results from self-report inventories completed by the youths were used. The Arizona Department of Corrections provided information regarding successful or unsuccessful adjustment to parole within 18 months. The data were analyzed by computer, using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences Program. Also, stepwise discriminant analysis was used to evaluate the continuous data and resulted in a correct prediction rate of 70 percent with all the cases known to be successful or predicted to be successful. The discriminatory power of the model was attributed to personality, intelligence, and achievement tests. The weakness of the model was its failure to accurately predict cases of unsuccessful adjustment. No statistical significance was found in the relationships between the successful and unsuccessful groups and ethnic background, number of siblings, welfare status, living situation, religious preference, use of drugs, or type of offense. However, more of the successful youths chose trade school or higher academic education, while a larger number of unsuccessful youths were vague or unable to express a vocational interest. No significant relationships between the two groups in regard to physiological factors were found. Future research should focus on characteristics of the failure cases in order to treat potential recidivists at an early stage. The findings also indicate a need for vocational counseling for juvenile offenders. Statistical tables, a glossary of diagnostic evaluation terms, and 60 references are included. (Author abstract modified)
Index Term(s): Arizona; Criminality prediction; Juvenile delinquency factors; Juvenile delinquency prediction; Juvenile Recidivism
Note: University of Arizona - doctoral dissertation
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