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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 72932 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Crime Prediction for Washington State
Document: PDF
Date Published: 1980
Annotation: This study predicts future crime patterns in Washington State for the years 1979 through 2000.
Abstract: The State's Office of Financial Management, Division of Criminal Justice, conducted the study with the aid of an LEAA grant in order to plan future allocations of public resources for criminal justice agencies. The first part reports the predicted crime rates and volume of crime in the categories of total crime, violent crime, and property crime. Violent crime includes the combinations of murder, manslaughter, robbery, rape, and aggravated larceny. Property crime includes burglary, auto theft, and larceny. Total crime includes the combination of violent and property crimes. The predictions are based on the reported crime data which was published in 'Crime in United States' from 1961 through 1978. The future rates take into account the at-risk population of males between the ages of 15 and 34--a population that has been historically responsible for the vast majority of crimes. The total crime rate is expected to remain near an average of 33.3 crimes per 100 at-risk persons. Violent crimes are expected to stabilize at about 2.1 crimes per 100 at-risk persons, and property crimes at 30.8. The second part provides the justification for the prediction methods. It argues that crime rates have stabilized since 1974 and that the rates will remain stable unless social changes in the magnitude of those in the late 1960's and early 1970's recur. Data tables and graphs, 17 references and appendixes with further supporting data are included.
Index Term(s): Crime patterns; Crime prediction; Crime Rate; Estimated crime incidence; Estimating methods; Washington
Grant Number: 79-MU-AX-0027
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
US Dept of Justice
Washington, DC 20531
Washington Office of Financial Management
Olympia, WA 98504
Corporate Author: Washington Office of Financial Management
Statistical Analysis Ctr
Law and Justice Planning Div
United States of Am
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Page Count: 56
Language: English
Country: United States of America
To cite this abstract, use the following link:
http://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=72932

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