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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 74418 Find in a Library
Title: Prison Population Projections, Fiscal Year 1981
Corporate Author: Illinois Dept of Corrections
Bureau of Policy Development
United States of America
Date Published: 1980
Page Count: 44
Sponsoring Agency: Illinois Dept of Corrections
Springfield, IL 62702
Type: Statistics
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: Statistical data showing projected prison populations for the State of Illinois during fiscal year 1981 are presented in tabular form; monthly information, offense projections, demographic characteristics and long-term projections are included.
Abstract: Future prison populations were calculated from a regression equation which added 77.696 offenders to the population for each month since October 1973. It was also possible to estimate future releases from prison using a two-segment regression approach. Composition of the future populations with respect to sex, race, and age was computed as well. The admission rate based on future State population indicated about a one percent change in admissions from 1980 through 1995. A 2.5 percent rise is suggested for the year 2000. By 2025 the admission rate is anticipated to be about 25 percent greater than the fiscal 1980 admission rate. For June 1981 the estimated prison population with early release is estimated as 12,479; the figure without early release is 13,079. By December 1981 the comparable figures will be 12,945 and 13,545, respectively. It is projected that by 1985, 44 percent of admissions will be white, 75 percent will be age 29 or younger, and 5 percent will be female. By 2000, the comparable figures will be 39 percent, 69 percent, and 5 percent, respectively. By the end of fiscal year 1980, new felon admissions averaged approximately 560 monthly. For the same year parolee readmissions averaged 90 per month, and misdemeanants averaged 60 per month. Graphs and tables comprise the bulk of the report, and an appendix is included.
Index Term(s): Correctional planning; Illinois; Inmate statistics; Long range planning; Prison population prediction
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