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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 77055 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Methods for Estimating Crime Rates of Individuals
Author(s): J E Rolph; J M Chaiken; R L Houchens
Corporate Author: Rand Corporation
United States of America
Date Published: 1981
Page Count: 105
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
Washington, DC 20531
National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Rand Corporation
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 78-NI-AX-0129
Publication Number: R-2730-NJJ
Sale Source: Rand Corporation
1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States of America

National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This report describes a research study that developed evaluation methodologies to analyze crime commission rates and to further distinguish between low-rate and high-rate offenders.
Abstract: The basic model underlying the approach of the study was that there are 'K' types of crimes of interest, and each criminal offender commits each of the crimes at a specified rate (possibly zero) when free to do so. The study methods were viewed as helping to accomplish the following goals: (1) describe the distribution of the observed crime rates for the selected offenders who provided information about their actual crime commissions; (2) estimate the crime commission propensities of any one of these individuals, taking into account the group's overall distribution of commission rates as well as the individual's reported crime commissions and other characteristics; and (3) estimate the distribution of crime commission propensities for more general populations of offenders who differ from the selected offenders in known ways. The study describes obstacles to estimating the univariate distribution of commission rates for a particular crime type, including skewed distribution, too many zeros, and instrumentation error. It also examines the appropriateness of the mixed gamma-Poisson model for analyzing crime commissions and describes the adaptation of a procedure by Hudson and Tsui to estimate each individual's crime commission propensity from information about the number of crimes committed during the measurement period. Additional topic areas covered by the summary include multivariate modeling and extrapolations to more general populations of offenders. Footnotes, a figure showing the distributions of crime rate for robbery of persons, and 23 references are included. For an executive summary of this report, see NCJ 77054.
Index Term(s): Crime rate studies; Criminality prediction; Evaluation techniques; Habitual offenders; Mathematical modeling; Statistical analysis
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