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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 77290 Find in a Library
Title: Crime and Arrest Rate Projections for the State and the Nation, 1976-1980
Author(s): F Anderson
Corporate Author: Virginia Division of Justice and Crime Prevention
Statistical Analysis Ctr
United States of America
Date Published: 1977
Page Count: 24
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Virginia Division of Justice and Crime Prevention
Richmond, VA 23229
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This paper presents a technique for making crime projections based on population age characteristics and forecasts crime rates for Virginia and the Nation for 1976 to 1980 and beyond.
Abstract: Traditional straight-line trend or linear regression projecting techniques are of limited effectiveness because of their reliance on mathematical formulas and their general disregard for the innate characteristics of the subject population. Since the preparation of State Comprehensive Plans for criminal justice activities in Virginia increasingly requires more precise crime rate predictions, a prediction technique which focuses on population age characteristics was developed. The technique gives special attention to the postwar baby boom in which large annual increases in the number of children born continued until 1958, when 4.3 million were born. The 1958 birth rate remained constant until 1962 and then declined, until a brief increase in 1967-70 as children of the baby boom began reaching child bearing age. Research results show that the rise in crime since 1960 corresponded precisely with the rise in the numbers of persons aged 15 through 29, the most crime prone ages. Since population projections by age can be accurately produced for a number of years in advance, this variable represents a sound basis upon which to build crime forecasts. For both Virginia and the Nation, a decrease in crime is expected to accompany a decrease in the crime prone age group in the coming years. However, individual localities may prove to be exceptions due to inordinately high migration rates. Data tables, graphs and a two-item reference list are included. Four data sources are cited.
Index Term(s): Crime prediction; Estimating methods; Future trends; Virginia
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