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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 77806 Find in a Library
Title: Factors Related to Recidivism Among Adult Probationers in Ontario
Author(s): S Rogers
Corporate Author: Ontario Ministry of Correctional Services
Planning and Research Branch
Date Published: 1981
Page Count: 45
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
Ontario Ministry of Correctional Services
Scarborough, Ontario M1L 4P1, Canada
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America
Document: PDF
Language: English
Country: Canada
Annotation: This study identifies factors predictive of recidivism among probationers in Ontario, Canada, and relates these factors to level of supervision. It also develops a risk scale to assist in classifying probationers to varying degrees of supervision.
Abstract: The sample reported on consists of 1,104 male and female probationers. Recidivism data were obtained from the Ministry's Adult Information System and from probation officers. Three measures of recidivism were examined: reconviction during the probation period, reconviction between the date the probation order was issued and 24 months following termination, and sentences of incarceration between the date the probation order was issued and 24 months following termination. The data provide a recidivism baseline for probationers in Ontario. Variables found to be indicative of high recidivism include criminal history, low socioeconomic status, lack of family cohesiveness, and others. The identification of factors which, in combination, best predict recidivism, enabled the researcher to construct a six-factor recidivism risk scale. A strong association was found between high risk scores and intensive supervision, and only 7.5 percent of the total sample appeared to be given a level of supervision at variance with the recidivism risk score. The study does not demonstrate causal relationships between the factors described and recidivism. Caution should be exercised in attempting to reduce recidivism by influencing factors which, though predictive of recidivism, may not be contributing causes. Regression analyses, tabular data, and a description of offense categories are appended.
Index Term(s): Crime Causes; Criminality prediction; Ontario; Probation or parole services; Probationers; Recidivism; Services effectiveness
Note: Project 188.
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