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NCJ Number: 83154 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Forecasting Future Trends of Crime
Author(s): J Jasinski
Date Published: 1980
Page Count: 216
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America

Wydawnictwo Prawnicze
Ul. Wisniowa 50
02-520 Warsaw,
Language: Polish
Country: Poland
Annotation: The study emphasizes the peculiarities of forecasting crime; presents research in forecasting crime trends in Poland, in other Eastern European countries, and in Western Europe; and details findings from specific studies in delinquent generation research.
Abstract: The test deals with general problems of forecasting in social sciences and with more detailed problems of forecasting crime. It considers the problems of the criterion and horizon of a forecast, i.e., the predicted states of affairs or behaviors, and the time of their occurrence, respectively. Ways of building predictive instruments are discussed, including those used by E. Burgess, S. and E. Glueck, H. Mannheim, and L. T. Wilkins, as well as classification techniques being widely used for predictive purposes. An examination of research on forecasting future trends of crime carried out in Eastern and Western Europe finds that this type of research is still at the trial-and-error stage. A discussion of empirical studies carried out in Poland -- including a survey of decision areas that are likely to affect the future scope of crime in Poland -- notes the influence of social, economic, and demographic changes on the structure of crime, with special attention to white-collar crime. A final section focuses on the problems of predicting delinquent behavior of people of the same generation, noting research in Great Britain, Poland, Denmark, and New Zealand. These studies were aimed at examining and testing the theory that children born in certain years (for example, in war time) are more likely to commit offenses than others and that this tendency remains from childhood to early adult life (the delinquent generations hypothesis). Labeling theory, another approach to the delinquent generation problem, is also considered. Footnotes and over 250 references are included. (Author summary modified)
Index Term(s): Crime prediction; Eastern Europe; Future trends; Juvenile delinquency factors; Labeling theory; Research methods; Western Europe
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