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NCJ Number: 90641 Find in a Library
Title: Comparison and Combination of Clinical and Statistical Predictions of Recidivism Among Adult Offenders
Journal: Journal of Applied Psychology  Volume:68  Issue:2  Dated:(May 1983)  Pages:203-211
Author(s): T R Holland; N Holt; M Levi; G E Beckett
Date Published: 1983
Page Count: 9
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: Decisionmaking guidelines are needed that include only those criminological variables that can serve the dual purpose of predicting recidivism and indicating which offenders, because of the social harm for which they have been responsible, are the most deserving of imprisonment as punishment.
Abstract: Clinical and statistical predictions of six categories of recidivism among 198 adult male felony probationers were compared and combined, both before and after correcting for the restricted range of predictor variables. The statistical composite consistently outperformed decisionmakers for the undifferentiated recidivism criteria of arrest and conviction. The opposite occurred for all three indices of violent recidivism, but only after correction for restriction of range. The combination of both variables tended not to produce significant increases in criterion variance compared to the superior predictor alone, the major exception being incarceration for any offense. Decisionmakers performed best when forecasting violent criminal behavior that resulted in incarceration. Tables, footnotes, and 19 references are included. (Author abstract modified)
Index Term(s): Criminality prediction; Recidivism; Violent offenders
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